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icon for CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)
Politics·Midterms

CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)

icon for CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)
Politics·Midterms

CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)

Polymarket

$15,903 Vol.

Polymarket

$15,903 Vol.

Scott Wiener

$4,148 Vol.

66%

Connie Chan

$11,755 Vol.

36%

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Scott Wiener leads trader consensus in the California 11th Congressional District general election at 65.5 percent implied probability, ahead of Connie Chan at 35.5 percent, following their advancement from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary where Wiener captured 40.7 percent and Chan 29.7 percent. Wiener benefits from broader name recognition, stronger fundraising totals, institutional endorsements including the state Democratic Party, and support from real estate interests aligned with his housing development record. Chan secured backing from Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi and Senator Adam Schiff, positioning her appeal among progressive voters and those prioritizing affordability concerns in San Francisco neighborhoods. An October 1 debate hosted by KQED and the San Francisco Chronicle offers the next scheduled opportunity for direct comparison on housing policy, immigration, and economic issues before November 3 ballots. The solidly Democratic district favors either nominee, with outcomes likely hinging on turnout and late-campaign momentum.

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,903
End Date
Nov 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Scott Wiener leads trader consensus in the California 11th Congressional District general election at 65.5 percent implied probability, ahead of Connie Chan at 35.5 percent, following their advancement from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary where Wiener captured 40.7 percent and Chan 29.7 percent. Wiener benefits from broader name recognition, stronger fundraising totals, institutional endorsements including the state Democratic Party, and support from real estate interests aligned with his housing development record. Chan secured backing from Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi and Senator Adam Schiff, positioning her appeal among progressive voters and those prioritizing affordability concerns in San Francisco neighborhoods. An October 1 debate hosted by KQED and the San Francisco Chronicle offers the next scheduled opportunity for direct comparison on housing policy, immigration, and economic issues before November 3 ballots. The solidly Democratic district favors either nominee, with outcomes likely hinging on turnout and late-campaign momentum.

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,903
End Date
Nov 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Scott Wiener" at 66%, followed by "Connie Chan" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 66¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)" has generated $15.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)" is "Scott Wiener" at 66%, meaning the market assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Connie Chan" at 36%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.