Scott Wiener holds the leading position in the CA-11 race at 60% implied probability due to his stronger performance in the June 2026 Democratic primary, where he secured roughly 41% of the vote compared to Connie Chan’s 30%. As the contest moves toward the November general election in this safely Democratic district, Wiener benefits from statewide name recognition as a state senator, party endorsement, and a record on housing policy that resonates in the San Francisco Bay Area. Chan trails at 38.5% despite Nancy Pelosi’s endorsement and support from some labor groups, reflecting a more progressive base that has not yet closed the gap in early fundraising and voter consolidation. Other listed candidates remain at 50% or below, consistent with their failure to advance past the primary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Scott Wiener
60%
Connie Chan
39%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Scott Wiener
$1,026 Vol.
60%
Connie Chan
$1,058 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Scott Wiener holds the leading position in the CA-11 race at 60% implied probability due to his stronger performance in the June 2026 Democratic primary, where he secured roughly 41% of the vote compared to Connie Chan’s 30%. As the contest moves toward the November general election in this safely Democratic district, Wiener benefits from statewide name recognition as a state senator, party endorsement, and a record on housing policy that resonates in the San Francisco Bay Area. Chan trails at 38.5% despite Nancy Pelosi’s endorsement and support from some labor groups, reflecting a more progressive base that has not yet closed the gap in early fundraising and voter consolidation. Other listed candidates remain at 50% or below, consistent with their failure to advance past the primary.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 10:00 PM ET
Volume
$2,085End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Scott Wiener holds the leading position in the CA-11 race at 60% implied probability due to his stronger performance in the June 2026 Democratic primary, where he secured roughly 41% of the vote compared to Connie Chan’s 30%. As the contest moves toward the November general election in this safely Democratic district, Wiener benefits from statewide name recognition as a state senator, party endorsement, and a record on housing policy that resonates in the San Francisco Bay Area. Chan trails at 38.5% despite Nancy Pelosi’s endorsement and support from some labor groups, reflecting a more progressive base that has not yet closed the gap in early fundraising and voter consolidation. Other listed candidates remain at 50% or below, consistent with their failure to advance past the primary.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,085End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Scott Wiener holds the leading position in the CA-11 race at 60% implied probability due to his stronger performance in the June 2026 Democratic primary, where he secured roughly 41% of the vote compared to Connie Chan’s 30%. As the contest moves toward the November general election in this safely Democratic district, Wiener benefits from statewide name recognition as a state senator, party endorsement, and a record on housing policy that resonates in the San Francisco Bay Area. Chan trails at 38.5% despite Nancy Pelosi’s endorsement and support from some labor groups, reflecting a more progressive base that has not yet closed the gap in early fundraising and voter consolidation. Other listed candidates remain at 50% or below, consistent with their failure to advance past the primary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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