The 2026 Senate map, with 20 Republican-held seats and 13 Democratic-held seats contested plus special elections in Florida and Ohio, anchors trader expectations for Republican seat totals clustered near 49–52. Multiple retirements, open seats in Georgia and Michigan, and competitive races involving incumbents such as Susan Collins in Maine and Thom Tillis’s successor in North Carolina create pathways for modest gains or losses depending on turnout and candidate recruitment. Recent primary outcomes and polling averages in these battlegrounds have kept probabilities evenly distributed across several seat totals, as national conditions three months before November voting remain fluid and sensitive to further developments in key states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,737,297 Vol.
$2,737,297 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
≤47
24%
48
12%
49
14%
50
14%
51
15%
52
12%
53
4%
54
2%
55
1%
56
1%
57+
1%
$2,737,297 Vol.
$2,737,297 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
≤47
$166,917 Vol.
24%
48
$39,907 Vol.
12%
49
$50,503 Vol.
14%
50
$115,799 Vol.
14%
51
$220,677 Vol.
15%
52
$586,147 Vol.
12%
53
$69,259 Vol.
4%
54
$762,912 Vol.
2%
55
$430,052 Vol.
1%
56
$182,960 Vol.
1%
57+
$112,165 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.The 2026 Senate map, with 20 Republican-held seats and 13 Democratic-held seats contested plus special elections in Florida and Ohio, anchors trader expectations for Republican seat totals clustered near 49–52. Multiple retirements, open seats in Georgia and Michigan, and competitive races involving incumbents such as Susan Collins in Maine and Thom Tillis’s successor in North Carolina create pathways for modest gains or losses depending on turnout and candidate recruitment. Recent primary outcomes and polling averages in these battlegrounds have kept probabilities evenly distributed across several seat totals, as national conditions three months before November voting remain fluid and sensitive to further developments in key states.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$2,737,297End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.The 2026 Senate map, with 20 Republican-held seats and 13 Democratic-held seats contested plus special elections in Florida and Ohio, anchors trader expectations for Republican seat totals clustered near 49–52. Multiple retirements, open seats in Georgia and Michigan, and competitive races involving incumbents such as Susan Collins in Maine and Thom Tillis’s successor in North Carolina create pathways for modest gains or losses depending on turnout and candidate recruitment. Recent primary outcomes and polling averages in these battlegrounds have kept probabilities evenly distributed across several seat totals, as national conditions three months before November voting remain fluid and sensitive to further developments in key states.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$2,737,297End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 Senate map, with 20 Republican-held seats and 13 Democratic-held seats contested plus special elections in Florida and Ohio, anchors trader expectations for Republican seat totals clustered near 49–52. Multiple retirements, open seats in Georgia and Michigan, and competitive races involving incumbents such as Susan Collins in Maine and Thom Tillis’s successor in North Carolina create pathways for modest gains or losses depending on turnout and candidate recruitment. Recent primary outcomes and polling averages in these battlegrounds have kept probabilities evenly distributed across several seat totals, as national conditions three months before November voting remain fluid and sensitive to further developments in key states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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