**Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination on August 18 with roughly 48% of the primary vote after receiving an early endorsement from President Trump, while David Jolly consolidated the Democratic side with about 61%.** Florida’s partisan lean—evident in Trump’s 13-point 2024 margin and DeSantis’s nearly 20-point 2022 reelection—underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Donalds enters the general election with a commanding fundraising edge exceeding $100 million, far outpacing Jolly, and benefits from unified party support following a competitive but decisive primary. Polls conducted in July and August show Donalds ahead by 5–7 points among likely voters, narrower than historical Republican statewide margins and prompting forecasters such as the Cook Political Report to adjust the race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.” Jolly, a former Republican congressman now running with Gwen Graham, positions the ticket to appeal to moderates and independents on issues like taxes and government costs, though Democratic prospects remain constrained by the state’s structural Republican advantage ahead of the November 3 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$57,198 Vol.
$57,198 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Byron Donalds (R)
80%
David Jolly (D)
19%
$57,198 Vol.
$57,198 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Byron Donalds (R)
$26,321 Vol.
80%
David Jolly (D)
$30,878 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.**Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination on August 18 with roughly 48% of the primary vote after receiving an early endorsement from President Trump, while David Jolly consolidated the Democratic side with about 61%.** Florida’s partisan lean—evident in Trump’s 13-point 2024 margin and DeSantis’s nearly 20-point 2022 reelection—underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Donalds enters the general election with a commanding fundraising edge exceeding $100 million, far outpacing Jolly, and benefits from unified party support following a competitive but decisive primary. Polls conducted in July and August show Donalds ahead by 5–7 points among likely voters, narrower than historical Republican statewide margins and prompting forecasters such as the Cook Political Report to adjust the race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.” Jolly, a former Republican congressman now running with Gwen Graham, positions the ticket to appeal to moderates and independents on issues like taxes and government costs, though Democratic prospects remain constrained by the state’s structural Republican advantage ahead of the November 3 vote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$57,198End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.**Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination on August 18 with roughly 48% of the primary vote after receiving an early endorsement from President Trump, while David Jolly consolidated the Democratic side with about 61%.** Florida’s partisan lean—evident in Trump’s 13-point 2024 margin and DeSantis’s nearly 20-point 2022 reelection—underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Donalds enters the general election with a commanding fundraising edge exceeding $100 million, far outpacing Jolly, and benefits from unified party support following a competitive but decisive primary. Polls conducted in July and August show Donalds ahead by 5–7 points among likely voters, narrower than historical Republican statewide margins and prompting forecasters such as the Cook Political Report to adjust the race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.” Jolly, a former Republican congressman now running with Gwen Graham, positions the ticket to appeal to moderates and independents on issues like taxes and government costs, though Democratic prospects remain constrained by the state’s structural Republican advantage ahead of the November 3 vote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$57,198End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination on August 18 with roughly 48% of the primary vote after receiving an early endorsement from President Trump, while David Jolly consolidated the Democratic side with about 61%.** Florida’s partisan lean—evident in Trump’s 13-point 2024 margin and DeSantis’s nearly 20-point 2022 reelection—underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Donalds enters the general election with a commanding fundraising edge exceeding $100 million, far outpacing Jolly, and benefits from unified party support following a competitive but decisive primary. Polls conducted in July and August show Donalds ahead by 5–7 points among likely voters, narrower than historical Republican statewide margins and prompting forecasters such as the Cook Political Report to adjust the race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.” Jolly, a former Republican congressman now running with Gwen Graham, positions the ticket to appeal to moderates and independents on issues like taxes and government costs, though Democratic prospects remain constrained by the state’s structural Republican advantage ahead of the November 3 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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