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icon for Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %
Politics·UK

Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %

icon for Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %
Politics·UK

Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %

Farage 60–70% 36%

Farage 70–80% 29.7%

Farage 80%+ 16%

Farage 50–60% 15%

Polymarket

$93,151 Vol.

Farage 60–70% 36%

Farage 70–80% 29.7%

Farage 80%+ 16%

Farage 50–60% 15%

Polymarket

$93,151 Vol.

Farage <40%

$6,919 Vol.

1%

Farage 40–50%

$6,396 Vol.

4%

Farage 50–60%

$11,279 Vol.

15%

Farage 60–70%

$14,962 Vol.

36%

Farage 70–80%

$22,611 Vol.

30%

Farage 80%+

$30,985 Vol.

16%

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Farage's resignation in early July to force a re-contest amid parliamentary scrutiny of his finances has kept attention on the 13 August by-election, where he starts with strong local name recognition after securing 46% in 2024. The absence of major-party candidates narrows direct opposition while a record 34 entrants, including novelty figures, risks fragmenting the remaining vote. National polling shows mixed sentiment and limited Reform momentum, yet the constituency's profile favors the Reform leader. These dynamics produce trader consensus around a comfortable but not dominant win, with probabilities clustered in the 60-80% range reflecting uncertainty over turnout, protest support, and how far any single rival can consolidate anti-Farage votes before polling day.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.

This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Volume
$93,151
End Date
Jun 30, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Farage's resignation in early July to force a re-contest amid parliamentary scrutiny of his finances has kept attention on the 13 August by-election, where he starts with strong local name recognition after securing 46% in 2024. The absence of major-party candidates narrows direct opposition while a record 34 entrants, including novelty figures, risks fragmenting the remaining vote. National polling shows mixed sentiment and limited Reform momentum, yet the constituency's profile favors the Reform leader. These dynamics produce trader consensus around a comfortable but not dominant win, with probabilities clustered in the 60-80% range reflecting uncertainty over turnout, protest support, and how far any single rival can consolidate anti-Farage votes before polling day.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.

This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Volume
$93,151
End Date
Jun 30, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).

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Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Farage 60–70%" at 36%, followed by "Farage 70–80%" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %" has generated $93.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %" is "Farage 60–70%" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Farage 70–80%" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.