Traders assign a 98% probability that former Prince Andrew, now known as Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, will not be sentenced to prison because the UK investigation into misconduct in public office remains at the pre-charge stage more than seven months after his February 2026 arrest. Police have not filed charges despite reviewing Epstein-related documents and issuing public appeals for witnesses, including on separate sexual misconduct allegations. The common-law offense carries a theoretical maximum of life imprisonment, yet prosecutions are infrequent and require proof of willful abuse of office that meets a high evidentiary threshold before the Crown Prosecution Service. No trial date or formal accusation has materialized, and historical precedent shows limited success in similar high-profile cases. Late developments such as new evidence leading to charges and conviction could still shift outcomes, though none have emerged to date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
$221,984 Vol.
$221,984 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
2% chance
$221,984 Vol.
$221,984 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 98% probability that former Prince Andrew, now known as Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, will not be sentenced to prison because the UK investigation into misconduct in public office remains at the pre-charge stage more than seven months after his February 2026 arrest. Police have not filed charges despite reviewing Epstein-related documents and issuing public appeals for witnesses, including on separate sexual misconduct allegations. The common-law offense carries a theoretical maximum of life imprisonment, yet prosecutions are infrequent and require proof of willful abuse of office that meets a high evidentiary threshold before the Crown Prosecution Service. No trial date or formal accusation has materialized, and historical precedent shows limited success in similar high-profile cases. Late developments such as new evidence leading to charges and conviction could still shift outcomes, though none have emerged to date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 19, 2026, 11:21 AM ET
Volume
$221,984End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 11:21 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 98% probability that former Prince Andrew, now known as Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, will not be sentenced to prison because the UK investigation into misconduct in public office remains at the pre-charge stage more than seven months after his February 2026 arrest. Police have not filed charges despite reviewing Epstein-related documents and issuing public appeals for witnesses, including on separate sexual misconduct allegations. The common-law offense carries a theoretical maximum of life imprisonment, yet prosecutions are infrequent and require proof of willful abuse of office that meets a high evidentiary threshold before the Crown Prosecution Service. No trial date or formal accusation has materialized, and historical precedent shows limited success in similar high-profile cases. Late developments such as new evidence leading to charges and conviction could still shift outcomes, though none have emerged to date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$221,984End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 11:21 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98% probability that former Prince Andrew, now known as Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, will not be sentenced to prison because the UK investigation into misconduct in public office remains at the pre-charge stage more than seven months after his February 2026 arrest. Police have not filed charges despite reviewing Epstein-related documents and issuing public appeals for witnesses, including on separate sexual misconduct allegations. The common-law offense carries a theoretical maximum of life imprisonment, yet prosecutions are infrequent and require proof of willful abuse of office that meets a high evidentiary threshold before the Crown Prosecution Service. No trial date or formal accusation has materialized, and historical precedent shows limited success in similar high-profile cases. Late developments such as new evidence leading to charges and conviction could still shift outcomes, though none have emerged to date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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