Democrats' prospects of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the primary driver behind the 68.5% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before the end of President Trump's term. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority, but generic ballot trends and historical patterns favor Democratic gains sufficient to flip the chamber. Multiple Democratic lawmakers, including Rep. Al Green, have advanced resolutions citing executive actions on immigration enforcement and related agency operations, though recent votes to table these measures revealed internal party divisions and a strategic focus on electoral messaging. Democratic leaders have signaled openness to formal proceedings and investigations if they secure majority status, consistent with prior patterns of using House oversight tools against opposing administrations. Senate conviction remains a separate, higher bar given current partisan balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated69% chance
$102,681 Vol.
$102,681 Vol.
Jan 19, 2029
Earn 3.25%
69% chance
$102,681 Vol.
$102,681 Vol.
Jan 19, 2029
Earn 3.25%
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats' prospects of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the primary driver behind the 68.5% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before the end of President Trump's term. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority, but generic ballot trends and historical patterns favor Democratic gains sufficient to flip the chamber. Multiple Democratic lawmakers, including Rep. Al Green, have advanced resolutions citing executive actions on immigration enforcement and related agency operations, though recent votes to table these measures revealed internal party divisions and a strategic focus on electoral messaging. Democratic leaders have signaled openness to formal proceedings and investigations if they secure majority status, consistent with prior patterns of using House oversight tools against opposing administrations. Senate conviction remains a separate, higher bar given current partisan balance.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$102,681End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats' prospects of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the primary driver behind the 68.5% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before the end of President Trump's term. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority, but generic ballot trends and historical patterns favor Democratic gains sufficient to flip the chamber. Multiple Democratic lawmakers, including Rep. Al Green, have advanced resolutions citing executive actions on immigration enforcement and related agency operations, though recent votes to table these measures revealed internal party divisions and a strategic focus on electoral messaging. Democratic leaders have signaled openness to formal proceedings and investigations if they secure majority status, consistent with prior patterns of using House oversight tools against opposing administrations. Senate conviction remains a separate, higher bar given current partisan balance.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$102,681End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Democrats' prospects of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the primary driver behind the 68.5% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before the end of President Trump's term. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority, but generic ballot trends and historical patterns favor Democratic gains sufficient to flip the chamber. Multiple Democratic lawmakers, including Rep. Al Green, have advanced resolutions citing executive actions on immigration enforcement and related agency operations, though recent votes to table these measures revealed internal party divisions and a strategic focus on electoral messaging. Democratic leaders have signaled openness to formal proceedings and investigations if they secure majority status, consistent with prior patterns of using House oversight tools against opposing administrations. Senate conviction remains a separate, higher bar given current partisan balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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