The pending federal indictment against former FBI Director James Comey centers on an April 2026 charging decision tied to a 2025 social media post, with arraignment set for September 30 and trial for October 21 in the Eastern District of North Carolina. Traders assign 97.5% probability to no prison sentence in 2026 because the case remains in pre-trial litigation, including pending defense motions to dismiss on grounds that the post does not meet the legal threshold for a true threat, while prior related charges were already dismissed on procedural grounds. Standard federal timelines for trials, verdicts, and sentencing hearings make resolution and punishment within the remaining months of 2026 improbable absent an immediate plea. Late judicial rulings on dismissal or an expedited guilty plea could still shift outcomes before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$158,226 Vol.
$158,226 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$158,226 Vol.
$158,226 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former FBI director James Comey is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Comey is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against James Comey for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The pending federal indictment against former FBI Director James Comey centers on an April 2026 charging decision tied to a 2025 social media post, with arraignment set for September 30 and trial for October 21 in the Eastern District of North Carolina. Traders assign 97.5% probability to no prison sentence in 2026 because the case remains in pre-trial litigation, including pending defense motions to dismiss on grounds that the post does not meet the legal threshold for a true threat, while prior related charges were already dismissed on procedural grounds. Standard federal timelines for trials, verdicts, and sentencing hearings make resolution and punishment within the remaining months of 2026 improbable absent an immediate plea. Late judicial rulings on dismissal or an expedited guilty plea could still shift outcomes before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former FBI director James Comey is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Comey is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against James Comey for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Comey is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against James Comey for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 2:28 PM ET
Volume
$158,226End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if former FBI director James Comey is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Comey is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against James Comey for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The pending federal indictment against former FBI Director James Comey centers on an April 2026 charging decision tied to a 2025 social media post, with arraignment set for September 30 and trial for October 21 in the Eastern District of North Carolina. Traders assign 97.5% probability to no prison sentence in 2026 because the case remains in pre-trial litigation, including pending defense motions to dismiss on grounds that the post does not meet the legal threshold for a true threat, while prior related charges were already dismissed on procedural grounds. Standard federal timelines for trials, verdicts, and sentencing hearings make resolution and punishment within the remaining months of 2026 improbable absent an immediate plea. Late judicial rulings on dismissal or an expedited guilty plea could still shift outcomes before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former FBI director James Comey is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Comey is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against James Comey for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Comey is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against James Comey for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$158,226End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The pending federal indictment against former FBI Director James Comey centers on an April 2026 charging decision tied to a 2025 social media post, with arraignment set for September 30 and trial for October 21 in the Eastern District of North Carolina. Traders assign 97.5% probability to no prison sentence in 2026 because the case remains in pre-trial litigation, including pending defense motions to dismiss on grounds that the post does not meet the legal threshold for a true threat, while prior related charges were already dismissed on procedural grounds. Standard federal timelines for trials, verdicts, and sentencing hearings make resolution and punishment within the remaining months of 2026 improbable absent an immediate plea. Late judicial rulings on dismissal or an expedited guilty plea could still shift outcomes before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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