Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year alongside core at 2.5% has reinforced trader expectations for steady policy at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, where the federal funds rate target range stands at 3.50-3.75%. With the prior July decision holding rates unchanged amid elevated but moderating price pressures and no new Summary of Economic Projections until September, market-implied odds favor no change at 71.5%. A modest 23.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike reflects ongoing inflation concerns and forward guidance from officials, while deeper easing probabilities remain minimal given the data trajectory and September meeting as an intermediate checkpoint.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 72%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 4.1%
50+ bps decrease 1.0%
$729,646 Vol.
$729,646 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
72%
25 bps increase
24%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 72%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 4.1%
50+ bps decrease 1.0%
$729,646 Vol.
$729,646 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$142,334 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$222,169 Vol.
4%
No change
$144,929 Vol.
72%
25 bps increase
$148,456 Vol.
24%
50+ bps increase
$71,759 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year alongside core at 2.5% has reinforced trader expectations for steady policy at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, where the federal funds rate target range stands at 3.50-3.75%. With the prior July decision holding rates unchanged amid elevated but moderating price pressures and no new Summary of Economic Projections until September, market-implied odds favor no change at 71.5%. A modest 23.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike reflects ongoing inflation concerns and forward guidance from officials, while deeper easing probabilities remain minimal given the data trajectory and September meeting as an intermediate checkpoint.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$729,646End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year alongside core at 2.5% has reinforced trader expectations for steady policy at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, where the federal funds rate target range stands at 3.50-3.75%. With the prior July decision holding rates unchanged amid elevated but moderating price pressures and no new Summary of Economic Projections until September, market-implied odds favor no change at 71.5%. A modest 23.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike reflects ongoing inflation concerns and forward guidance from officials, while deeper easing probabilities remain minimal given the data trajectory and September meeting as an intermediate checkpoint.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$729,646End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year alongside core at 2.5% has reinforced trader expectations for steady policy at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, where the federal funds rate target range stands at 3.50-3.75%. With the prior July decision holding rates unchanged amid elevated but moderating price pressures and no new Summary of Economic Projections until September, market-implied odds favor no change at 71.5%. A modest 23.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike reflects ongoing inflation concerns and forward guidance from officials, while deeper easing probabilities remain minimal given the data trajectory and September meeting as an intermediate checkpoint.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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