Recent August 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation steady at 3.4% year-over-year alongside a 0.4% monthly increase, driven partly by higher energy prices, has reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy. A resilient labor market, evidenced by solid job gains and low unemployment near 4.1%, has further supported the case for rate hikes amid hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and revised forecasts from banks like UBS projecting 25-basis-point increases at both the September and December FOMC meetings. With the current target range at 3.50-3.75%, market-implied odds for a December hike reflect aggregated sentiment that persistent price pressures and economic strength outweigh cooling risks, though incoming data releases before year-end could still shift the path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25 bps increase 56%
No change 40%
50+ bps increase 3.9%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
$687,464 Vol.
$687,464 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
40%
25 bps increase
56%
50+ bps increase
4%
25 bps increase 56%
No change 40%
50+ bps increase 3.9%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
$687,464 Vol.
$687,464 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$102,808 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$155,944 Vol.
3%
No change
$136,748 Vol.
40%
25 bps increase
$187,162 Vol.
56%
50+ bps increase
$104,802 Vol.
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation steady at 3.4% year-over-year alongside a 0.4% monthly increase, driven partly by higher energy prices, has reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy. A resilient labor market, evidenced by solid job gains and low unemployment near 4.1%, has further supported the case for rate hikes amid hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and revised forecasts from banks like UBS projecting 25-basis-point increases at both the September and December FOMC meetings. With the current target range at 3.50-3.75%, market-implied odds for a December hike reflect aggregated sentiment that persistent price pressures and economic strength outweigh cooling risks, though incoming data releases before year-end could still shift the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$687,464End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation steady at 3.4% year-over-year alongside a 0.4% monthly increase, driven partly by higher energy prices, has reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy. A resilient labor market, evidenced by solid job gains and low unemployment near 4.1%, has further supported the case for rate hikes amid hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and revised forecasts from banks like UBS projecting 25-basis-point increases at both the September and December FOMC meetings. With the current target range at 3.50-3.75%, market-implied odds for a December hike reflect aggregated sentiment that persistent price pressures and economic strength outweigh cooling risks, though incoming data releases before year-end could still shift the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$687,464End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation steady at 3.4% year-over-year alongside a 0.4% monthly increase, driven partly by higher energy prices, has reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy. A resilient labor market, evidenced by solid job gains and low unemployment near 4.1%, has further supported the case for rate hikes amid hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and revised forecasts from banks like UBS projecting 25-basis-point increases at both the September and December FOMC meetings. With the current target range at 3.50-3.75%, market-implied odds for a December hike reflect aggregated sentiment that persistent price pressures and economic strength outweigh cooling risks, though incoming data releases before year-end could still shift the path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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