**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and hawkish signals from new Chair Kevin Warsh are the main drivers of dispersed trader sentiment on the September, October, and December FOMC decisions.** June 2026 SEP projections lifted the median federal funds rate path, with the 2026 core PCE forecast revised up to 3.3% amid resilient growth and supply pressures from tariffs and Middle East energy shocks. July data showed headline CPI at +3.4% year-over-year and core PCE steady near 3.3%, while the unemployment rate edged to 4.1% and July payrolls contracted. Futures markets currently price the effective fed funds rate rising toward 3.9% by year-end, consistent with the spread across hike-pause sequences. The closely matched leading probabilities (23.5% for hike-pause-hike) reflect uncertainty over whether incoming inflation prints and the September 15–16 meeting will produce one or two 25-basis-point moves versus a longer pause, with the October 27–28 and December 8–9 meetings serving as key swing points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHike–Pause–Hike 24%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 15%
Hike–Hike–Pause 14%
NEW
NEW
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
24%
Hike–Pause–Pause
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
7%
Hike–Hike–Pause
14%
Pause–Pause–Hike
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause
12%
Pause–Hike–Hike
8%
Pause–Hike–Pause
10%
Other
5%
Hike–Pause–Hike 24%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 15%
Hike–Hike–Pause 14%
NEW
NEW
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$114 Vol.
24%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$81 Vol.
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$50 Vol.
7%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$68 Vol.
14%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$96 Vol.
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$45 Vol.
12%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$35 Vol.
8%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$52 Vol.
10%
Other
$35 Vol.
5%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and hawkish signals from new Chair Kevin Warsh are the main drivers of dispersed trader sentiment on the September, October, and December FOMC decisions.** June 2026 SEP projections lifted the median federal funds rate path, with the 2026 core PCE forecast revised up to 3.3% amid resilient growth and supply pressures from tariffs and Middle East energy shocks. July data showed headline CPI at +3.4% year-over-year and core PCE steady near 3.3%, while the unemployment rate edged to 4.1% and July payrolls contracted. Futures markets currently price the effective fed funds rate rising toward 3.9% by year-end, consistent with the spread across hike-pause sequences. The closely matched leading probabilities (23.5% for hike-pause-hike) reflect uncertainty over whether incoming inflation prints and the September 15–16 meeting will produce one or two 25-basis-point moves versus a longer pause, with the October 27–28 and December 8–9 meetings serving as key swing points.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$577End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and hawkish signals from new Chair Kevin Warsh are the main drivers of dispersed trader sentiment on the September, October, and December FOMC decisions.** June 2026 SEP projections lifted the median federal funds rate path, with the 2026 core PCE forecast revised up to 3.3% amid resilient growth and supply pressures from tariffs and Middle East energy shocks. July data showed headline CPI at +3.4% year-over-year and core PCE steady near 3.3%, while the unemployment rate edged to 4.1% and July payrolls contracted. Futures markets currently price the effective fed funds rate rising toward 3.9% by year-end, consistent with the spread across hike-pause sequences. The closely matched leading probabilities (23.5% for hike-pause-hike) reflect uncertainty over whether incoming inflation prints and the September 15–16 meeting will produce one or two 25-basis-point moves versus a longer pause, with the October 27–28 and December 8–9 meetings serving as key swing points.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$577End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and hawkish signals from new Chair Kevin Warsh are the main drivers of dispersed trader sentiment on the September, October, and December FOMC decisions.** June 2026 SEP projections lifted the median federal funds rate path, with the 2026 core PCE forecast revised up to 3.3% amid resilient growth and supply pressures from tariffs and Middle East energy shocks. July data showed headline CPI at +3.4% year-over-year and core PCE steady near 3.3%, while the unemployment rate edged to 4.1% and July payrolls contracted. Futures markets currently price the effective fed funds rate rising toward 3.9% by year-end, consistent with the spread across hike-pause sequences. The closely matched leading probabilities (23.5% for hike-pause-hike) reflect uncertainty over whether incoming inflation prints and the September 15–16 meeting will produce one or two 25-basis-point moves versus a longer pause, with the October 27–28 and December 8–9 meetings serving as key swing points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions