Recent developments, including the U.S. Department of Justice’s April 2026 decision to drop its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over headquarters renovations and congressional testimony, have solidified trader consensus around a near-certain “No” outcome. The investigation, which surfaced in January amid subpoenas later quashed by a federal judge, produced no charges or indictments before Powell completed his term as chair in May. Institutional safeguards, the absence of verifiable criminal conduct, and the high evidentiary bar for prosecuting senior monetary policy officials underpin the 98.8% implied probability. While tail risks such as a newly initiated unrelated inquiry or extraordinary political intervention remain theoretically possible before 2027, market pricing reflects their negligible likelihood given current facts and precedent.