The absence of any formal charges, indictments, or credible legal proceedings against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell underpins the market-implied 97.5% probability that he will not serve jail time before 2027. As an appointed central banker insulated by statute and precedent, Powell faces no active criminal exposure tied to monetary policy decisions, inflation data releases, or regulatory oversight, with trader consensus reflecting the structural barriers to prosecuting sitting or recent Fed leadership. While tail risks such as unforeseen political shifts or novel legal interpretations remain theoretically possible in a contested environment, they lack supporting evidence in current filings or enforcement actions, leaving the resolution path dominated by continuity in institutional norms.