The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell—after a federal judge found “zero evidence” of wrongdoing tied to headquarters renovations and congressional testimony—underpins the 94.7% market-implied odds against imprisonment before 2027. Prosecutors cited insufficient grounds and shifted oversight to the Fed’s inspector general, while Powell’s term as chair ends in May and successor Kevin Warsh’s confirmation advanced without further legal hurdles. Traders view the episode as politically driven rather than substantive, consistent with historical precedent that senior monetary officials rarely face incarceration absent clear criminal conduct. A realistic challenge could arise only from unexpected new evidence in the inspector general’s review or a renewed referral, though both appear remote given the timeline and prior judicial findings.