The near-certain 98.7% market-implied probability on "No" for Jerome Powell serving jail time before 2027 stems primarily from the Justice Department's April 2026 closure of its sole criminal inquiry into Fed headquarters renovation costs and congressional testimony, with no charges filed after subpoenas were quashed. As former Fed Chair through May 2026 and current Board governor, Powell faces no active enforcement actions or indictments amid routine monetary policy focus on inflation and labor data. Historical precedent reinforces this outcome, as no U.S. central bank leader has faced imprisonment. Tail risks remain confined to hypothetical extreme political reversals lacking any verifiable basis in regulatory filings or current enforcement trends.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The near-certain 98.7% market-implied probability on "No" for Jerome Powell serving jail time before 2027 stems primarily from the Justice Department's April 2026 closure of its sole criminal inquiry into Fed headquarters renovation costs and congressional testimony, with no charges filed after subpoenas were quashed. As former Fed Chair through May 2026 and current Board governor, Powell faces no active enforcement actions or indictments amid routine monetary policy focus on inflation and labor data. Historical precedent reinforces this outcome, as no U.S. central bank leader has faced imprisonment. Tail risks remain confined to hypothetical extreme political reversals lacking any verifiable basis in regulatory filings or current enforcement trends.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Объем
$3,761Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The near-certain 98.7% market-implied probability on "No" for Jerome Powell serving jail time before 2027 stems primarily from the Justice Department's April 2026 closure of its sole criminal inquiry into Fed headquarters renovation costs and congressional testimony, with no charges filed after subpoenas were quashed. As former Fed Chair through May 2026 and current Board governor, Powell faces no active enforcement actions or indictments amid routine monetary policy focus on inflation and labor data. Historical precedent reinforces this outcome, as no U.S. central bank leader has faced imprisonment. Tail risks remain confined to hypothetical extreme political reversals lacking any verifiable basis in regulatory filings or current enforcement trends.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$3,761Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain 98.7% market-implied probability on "No" for Jerome Powell serving jail time before 2027 stems primarily from the Justice Department's April 2026 closure of its sole criminal inquiry into Fed headquarters renovation costs and congressional testimony, with no charges filed after subpoenas were quashed. As former Fed Chair through May 2026 and current Board governor, Powell faces no active enforcement actions or indictments amid routine monetary policy focus on inflation and labor data. Historical precedent reinforces this outcome, as no U.S. central bank leader has faced imprisonment. Tail risks remain confined to hypothetical extreme political reversals lacking any verifiable basis in regulatory filings or current enforcement trends.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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