The resolution of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, which was dropped without charges on April 24, 2026, underpins the 97.3% market-implied probability against imprisonment before 2027. No active federal probes, indictments, or substantiated allegations of criminal conduct exist, consistent with longstanding institutional norms shielding central bank officials from political interference absent clear evidence. Powell’s transition from chair to governor role further distances him from high-profile exposure. While near-certain trader consensus reflects this clean record and historical precedent, tail-risk scenarios such as unexpected new evidence from oversight hearings or rapid escalation in separate matters could theoretically alter outcomes, though judicial barriers make such shifts improbable.