The market-implied 97.5% probability that Jerome Powell will not be in jail before 2027 reflects the complete absence of any active criminal investigations, indictments, or credible legal proceedings against the Federal Reserve Chair. No regulatory filings, congressional actions, or enforcement actions from the Department of Justice have targeted Powell personally, despite ongoing scrutiny of monetary policy decisions and the Fed's balance sheet. His term as Chair concludes in May 2026, after which he reverts to a standard Board of Governors role with no evident shift in legal exposure. Historical precedent shows U.S. central bankers face negligible risk of incarceration absent extraordinary misconduct. While tail-risk scenarios such as unforeseen political developments or weaponized prosecutions remain theoretically possible, they lack any supporting evidence and would require unprecedented institutional breakdowns to materialize before the 2027 horizon.