The market-implied odds of 97.7% against Jerome Powell serving jail time before 2027 reflect the absence of any active investigations, indictments, or credible legal claims against the Federal Reserve Chair that could plausibly result in incarceration. Institutional norms around central bank independence, combined with Powell's appointed status and lack of personal financial or ethical controversies in regulatory filings, underpin this strong trader consensus backed by real capital. While tail-risk scenarios such as unprecedented political weaponization of the justice system or extreme regulatory overreach remain theoretically possible, they would require fundamental shifts in U.S. governance structures far beyond current market pricing or observable developments.