Traders price a 97.4% probability that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell avoids jail before 2027, reflecting the complete absence of criminal charges, indictments, or credible investigations against him in official records or regulatory disclosures. As the central figure directing monetary policy through the FOMC amid current inflation and employment data, Powell operates under institutional safeguards and longstanding norms that have kept prior Fed chairs free from personal legal exposure. Market-implied odds incorporate this base-rate reality alongside the high barriers to prosecuting a sitting or recent senior official. Remote tail risks, such as unprecedented political weaponization or unforeseen events in a shifting regulatory climate, could theoretically alter the outcome but lack supporting evidence in current filings or developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders price a 97.4% probability that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell avoids jail before 2027, reflecting the complete absence of criminal charges, indictments, or credible investigations against him in official records or regulatory disclosures. As the central figure directing monetary policy through the FOMC amid current inflation and employment data, Powell operates under institutional safeguards and longstanding norms that have kept prior Fed chairs free from personal legal exposure. Market-implied odds incorporate this base-rate reality alongside the high barriers to prosecuting a sitting or recent senior official. Remote tail risks, such as unprecedented political weaponization or unforeseen events in a shifting regulatory climate, could theoretically alter the outcome but lack supporting evidence in current filings or developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Volumen
$3,761Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders price a 97.4% probability that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell avoids jail before 2027, reflecting the complete absence of criminal charges, indictments, or credible investigations against him in official records or regulatory disclosures. As the central figure directing monetary policy through the FOMC amid current inflation and employment data, Powell operates under institutional safeguards and longstanding norms that have kept prior Fed chairs free from personal legal exposure. Market-implied odds incorporate this base-rate reality alongside the high barriers to prosecuting a sitting or recent senior official. Remote tail risks, such as unprecedented political weaponization or unforeseen events in a shifting regulatory climate, could theoretically alter the outcome but lack supporting evidence in current filings or developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$3,761Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders price a 97.4% probability that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell avoids jail before 2027, reflecting the complete absence of criminal charges, indictments, or credible investigations against him in official records or regulatory disclosures. As the central figure directing monetary policy through the FOMC amid current inflation and employment data, Powell operates under institutional safeguards and longstanding norms that have kept prior Fed chairs free from personal legal exposure. Market-implied odds incorporate this base-rate reality alongside the high barriers to prosecuting a sitting or recent senior official. Remote tail risks, such as unprecedented political weaponization or unforeseen events in a shifting regulatory climate, could theoretically alter the outcome but lack supporting evidence in current filings or developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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