Traders on Polymarket have priced a 71% implied probability into no Federal Reserve rate changes at the April 30–May 1, June 11–12, and July 30–31 FOMC meetings, reflecting hawkish repricing after hotter-than-expected economic data solidified the pause consensus. March's core CPI rose 3.6% year-over-year on April 10—above forecasts—while the April 5 nonfarm payrolls added 303,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 3.8% and wage growth accelerating, easing recession fears but stoking inflation persistence concerns. Fed Chair Powell's recent comments emphasized data dependence amid resilient growth, with 10-year Treasury yields climbing above 4.5%. Upcoming April 26 PCE inflation and Q1 GDP data could influence the path, though near-term cut odds remain slim below 15% for June–July sequences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 71%
Pause–Pause–Cut 14%
Other 7%
Pause–Cut–Pause 4.0%
NEW
NEW
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
8%
Cut–Pause–Cut
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
2%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
14%
Pause–Cut–Pause
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause 71%
Pause–Pause–Cut 14%
Other 7%
Pause–Cut–Pause 4.0%
NEW
NEW
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$0 Vol.
8%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$0 Vol.
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$0 Vol.
2%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$0 Vol.
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$271 Vol.
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$169 Vol.
14%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$0 Vol.
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$0 Vol.
1%
Other
$0 Vol.
15%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders on Polymarket have priced a 71% implied probability into no Federal Reserve rate changes at the April 30–May 1, June 11–12, and July 30–31 FOMC meetings, reflecting hawkish repricing after hotter-than-expected economic data solidified the pause consensus. March's core CPI rose 3.6% year-over-year on April 10—above forecasts—while the April 5 nonfarm payrolls added 303,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 3.8% and wage growth accelerating, easing recession fears but stoking inflation persistence concerns. Fed Chair Powell's recent comments emphasized data dependence amid resilient growth, with 10-year Treasury yields climbing above 4.5%. Upcoming April 26 PCE inflation and Q1 GDP data could influence the path, though near-term cut odds remain slim below 15% for June–July sequences.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volume
$440End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders on Polymarket have priced a 71% implied probability into no Federal Reserve rate changes at the April 30–May 1, June 11–12, and July 30–31 FOMC meetings, reflecting hawkish repricing after hotter-than-expected economic data solidified the pause consensus. March's core CPI rose 3.6% year-over-year on April 10—above forecasts—while the April 5 nonfarm payrolls added 303,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 3.8% and wage growth accelerating, easing recession fears but stoking inflation persistence concerns. Fed Chair Powell's recent comments emphasized data dependence amid resilient growth, with 10-year Treasury yields climbing above 4.5%. Upcoming April 26 PCE inflation and Q1 GDP data could influence the path, though near-term cut odds remain slim below 15% for June–July sequences.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$440End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders on Polymarket have priced a 71% implied probability into no Federal Reserve rate changes at the April 30–May 1, June 11–12, and July 30–31 FOMC meetings, reflecting hawkish repricing after hotter-than-expected economic data solidified the pause consensus. March's core CPI rose 3.6% year-over-year on April 10—above forecasts—while the April 5 nonfarm payrolls added 303,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 3.8% and wage growth accelerating, easing recession fears but stoking inflation persistence concerns. Fed Chair Powell's recent comments emphasized data dependence amid resilient growth, with 10-year Treasury yields climbing above 4.5%. Upcoming April 26 PCE inflation and Q1 GDP data could influence the path, though near-term cut odds remain slim below 15% for June–July sequences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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