Skip to main content
icon for Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Politics·Trump

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

icon for Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Politics·Trump

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh 100.0%

Judy Shelton <1%

Kevin Hassett <1%

Christopher Waller <1%

Polymarket

$64,453,275 交易量

Kevin Warsh 100.0%

Judy Shelton <1%

Kevin Hassett <1%

Christopher Waller <1%

Polymarket

$64,453,275 交易量

Kevin Warsh

$14,412,258 交易量

Yes

Judy Shelton

$23,970,640 交易量

No

Kevin Hassett

$2,096,549 交易量

No

Christopher Waller

$2,229,963 交易量

No

Jerome Powell

$2,694,321 交易量

No

Stephen Miran

$1,672,834 交易量

No

Scott Bessent

$4,678,392 交易量

No

Rick Reider

$2,086,775 交易量

No

Michelle Bowman

$10,611,544 交易量

No

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair on May 13 by a narrow 54-45 vote, with Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman providing the sole Democratic crossover amid partisan divisions, propelling trader consensus to 100% on his outcome and pricing Judy Shelton and Michelle Bowman near zero. This followed Senate approval of Warsh's Fed Board of Governors seat and advancement through the Banking Committee, solidifying President Trump's nominee to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends May 15. The commanding position reflects the final confirmation vote as ground truth for market resolution, with realistic challenges limited to unforeseen procedural reversals, health issues, or late withdrawals—none currently indicated.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$64,453,275
结束日期
2026-10-31
市场开放时间
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

已提议结果: Yes

无争议

最终结果: Yes

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair on May 13 by a narrow 54-45 vote, with Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman providing the sole Democratic crossover amid partisan divisions, propelling trader consensus to 100% on his outcome and pricing Judy Shelton and Michelle Bowman near zero. This followed Senate approval of Warsh's Fed Board of Governors seat and advancement through the Banking Committee, solidifying President Trump's nominee to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends May 15. The commanding position reflects the final confirmation vote as ground truth for market resolution, with realistic challenges limited to unforeseen procedural reversals, health issues, or late withdrawals—none currently indicated.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$64,453,275
结束日期
2026-10-31
市场开放时间
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

已提议结果: Yes

无争议

最终结果: Yes

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 9 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"Kevin Warsh"，概率为 100%，其次是"Judy Shelton"，概率为 0%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 100¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 100%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?"已产生 $64.5 million 的总交易量（自Mar 4, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 9 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?"的当前领先者是"Kevin Warsh"，概率为 100%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 100%。紧随其后的结果是"Judy Shelton"，概率为 0%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。