Market-implied odds of 94% for a Fed rate hike reflect the impact of August core CPI data exceeding consensus at 0.3% month-over-month alongside elevated energy prices tied to supply disruptions. The federal funds target range stands at 3.50%-3.75%, and futures pricing now embeds a roughly 23 basis point increase at the September 16 FOMC meeting. Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target, reinforced by revised dot-plot projections showing more officials favoring tightening, has anchored trader sentiment. While the labor market remains near maximum employment, persistent core readings above target have shifted the policy focus toward price stability. A softer-than-expected September CPI or clear signs of cooling demand could still alter the outcome before the meeting concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHike
94% chance
$14,845 Vol.
$14,845 Vol.
Dec 31, 2028
Hike
94% chance
$14,845 Vol.
$14,845 Vol.
Dec 31, 2028
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds of 94% for a Fed rate hike reflect the impact of August core CPI data exceeding consensus at 0.3% month-over-month alongside elevated energy prices tied to supply disruptions. The federal funds target range stands at 3.50%-3.75%, and futures pricing now embeds a roughly 23 basis point increase at the September 16 FOMC meeting. Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target, reinforced by revised dot-plot projections showing more officials favoring tightening, has anchored trader sentiment. While the labor market remains near maximum employment, persistent core readings above target have shifted the policy focus toward price stability. A softer-than-expected September CPI or clear signs of cooling demand could still alter the outcome before the meeting concludes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Volume
$14,845End Date
Dec 31, 2028Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds of 94% for a Fed rate hike reflect the impact of August core CPI data exceeding consensus at 0.3% month-over-month alongside elevated energy prices tied to supply disruptions. The federal funds target range stands at 3.50%-3.75%, and futures pricing now embeds a roughly 23 basis point increase at the September 16 FOMC meeting. Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target, reinforced by revised dot-plot projections showing more officials favoring tightening, has anchored trader sentiment. While the labor market remains near maximum employment, persistent core readings above target have shifted the policy focus toward price stability. A softer-than-expected September CPI or clear signs of cooling demand could still alter the outcome before the meeting concludes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$14,845End Date
Dec 31, 2028Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Market-implied odds of 94% for a Fed rate hike reflect the impact of August core CPI data exceeding consensus at 0.3% month-over-month alongside elevated energy prices tied to supply disruptions. The federal funds target range stands at 3.50%-3.75%, and futures pricing now embeds a roughly 23 basis point increase at the September 16 FOMC meeting. Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target, reinforced by revised dot-plot projections showing more officials favoring tightening, has anchored trader sentiment. While the labor market remains near maximum employment, persistent core readings above target have shifted the policy focus toward price stability. A softer-than-expected September CPI or clear signs of cooling demand could still alter the outcome before the meeting concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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