Skip to main content
Market icon
Politics·Jerome Powell

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?

Market icon
Politics·Jerome Powell

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?

NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$4,566 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30

$2,268 Vol.

10%

December 31

$2,298 Vol.

19%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Powell from his role as chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, which do not include removing Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's April 15 Fox Business interview, where he vowed to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell from his Board of Governors seat if he remains post-May 15 chair term expiration, has intensified trader focus on Federal Reserve independence. Powell's governor term extends to January 2028, but removal requires "for cause" under statute, inviting legal challenges amid Trump's prior criticisms of Powell's cautious rate stance amid stagflation signals. Nominee Kevin Warsh faces Senate hurdles tied to a DOJ probe, delaying transition. Markets price heightened policy uncertainty, with Treasury yields sensitive to potential shifts in the Fed funds rate path; watch May FOMC and confirmation votes for catalysts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.

If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

Attempts to remove Powell from his role as chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, which do not include removing Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, will not alone qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,566
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Powell from his role as chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, which do not include removing Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Powell from his role as chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, which do not include removing Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's April 15 Fox Business interview, where he vowed to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell from his Board of Governors seat if he remains post-May 15 chair term expiration, has intensified trader focus on Federal Reserve independence. Powell's governor term extends to January 2028, but removal requires "for cause" under statute, inviting legal challenges amid Trump's prior criticisms of Powell's cautious rate stance amid stagflation signals. Nominee Kevin Warsh faces Senate hurdles tied to a DOJ probe, delaying transition. Markets price heightened policy uncertainty, with Treasury yields sensitive to potential shifts in the Fed funds rate path; watch May FOMC and confirmation votes for catalysts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.

If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

Attempts to remove Powell from his role as chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, which do not include removing Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, will not alone qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,566
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Powell from his role as chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, which do not include removing Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 19%, followed by "June 30" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 19¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 16, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?" is "December 31" at 19%, meaning the market assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.