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Jerome Powell predictions & odds

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Fed decision in April?

Fed decision in April?

100%

No change

$163M Vol.

$12M today

$22M Liq.

14

Ends in 3 days

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

99%

Kevin Warsh

$42M Vol.

$939K today

$2M Liq.

85

Ends in 6 months

Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

93%

No change

$10M Vol.

$256K today

$1M Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

39%

0 (0 bps)

$21M Vol.

$137K today

$2M Liq.

58

Ends in 8 months

Fed Decision in July?

Fed Decision in July?

84%

No change

$4M Vol.

$407K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

34%

3.5%

$6M Vol.

$356K Liq.

6

Ends in 8 months

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

91%

June 30

$2M Vol.

$59.8K Liq.

49

Ends in 18 days

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

80%

December 31

$171K Vol.

$29.1K Liq.

10

Ends in 8 months

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

65%

↓ 3.25%

$1M Vol.

$295K Liq.

5

Ends in 8 months

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

84%

1

$71.4K Vol.

$35.0K Liq.

Ends in 3 days

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

60%

December Meeting

$1M Vol.

$183K Liq.

17

Ends in about 2 months

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

91%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$968K Vol.

$100K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?

Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?

6%

$83.2K Vol.

$13.3K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?

When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?

80%

May 15–22

$54.1K Vol.

$68.0K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?

Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?

91%

May 31

$20.6K Vol.

$20.1K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

What will Powell say during April Press Conference?

What will Powell say during April Press Conference?

98%

Good Afternoon

$130K Vol.

$42.9K Liq.

4

Ends in 3 days

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

73%

4.5%

$190K Vol.

$30.9K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

99%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$661K Vol.

$129K Liq.

Ends in 3 days

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?

19%

December 31

$10.8K Vol.

$17.8K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

13%

$923K Vol.

$75.8K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for Jerome Powell that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Fed decision in April?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $255.2M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Fed decision in April?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Fed decision in April?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 100% chance to No change. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

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