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Politics predictions & odds

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QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?

QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?

100%

$12M Vol.

$11M today

$4M Liq.

Elon Musk # tweets April 28 - May 5, 2026?

Elon Musk # tweets April 28 - May 5, 2026?

39%

140-159

$6M Vol.

$2M today

$1M Liq.

Ends in 2 days

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

26%

Gavin Newsom

$1B Vol.

$2M today

$52M Liq.

706

Ends in over 2 years

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

21%

JD Vance

$564M Vol.

$1M today

$26M Liq.

876

Ends in over 2 years

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

39%

J.D. Vance

$598M Vol.

$1M today

$23M Liq.

376

Ends in over 2 years

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

3%

$14M Vol.

$1M today

$1M Liq.

1

Ends in 28 days

Next French Presidential Election

Next French Presidential Election

23%

Jordan Bardella

$58M Vol.

$1M today

$5M Liq.

446

Ends in 12 months

Elon Musk # tweets May 5 - May 12, 2026?

Elon Musk # tweets May 5 - May 12, 2026?

17%

180-199

$1M Vol.

$989K today

$300K Liq.

Ends in 9 days

Elon Musk # tweets May 1 - May 8, 2026?

Elon Musk # tweets May 1 - May 8, 2026?

19%

180-199

$3M Vol.

$791K today

$853K Liq.

Ends in 5 days

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

35%

June 30

$69M Vol.

$759K today

$1M Liq.

1,495

Ends in 28 days

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

100%

Kevin Warsh

$48M Vol.

$572K today

$3M Liq.

92

Ends in 6 months

Brazil Presidential Election

Brazil Presidential Election

44%

Flávio Bolsonaro

$64M Vol.

$561K today

$4M Liq.

5,914

Ends in 5 months

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

67%

June 30

$30M Vol.

$507K today

$758K Liq.

5

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

29%

May 31

$11M Vol.

$501K today

$397K Liq.

282

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

28%

December 31

$10M Vol.

$469K today

$483K Liq.

103

Ends in 8 months

Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

96%

No change

$16M Vol.

$421K today

$2M Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

88%

Chong Won-oh

$34M Vol.

$416K today

$4M Liq.

53

Ends in about 1 month

Elon Musk # tweets May 2 - May 4, 2026?

Elon Musk # tweets May 2 - May 4, 2026?

76%

40-64

$548K Vol.

$415K today

$168K Liq.

Ends in 1 day

Iran closes its airspace by...?

Iran closes its airspace by...?

37%

May 31

$420K Vol.

$351K today

$210K Liq.

31

Ends in 28 days

California Governor Election Winner

California Governor Election Winner

43%

Tom Steyer

$16M Vol.

$346K today

$3M Liq.

44

Ends in 6 months

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Politics.

Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for Politics that lets you track or trade on predictions like “QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $2.7B in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 26% chance to Gavin Newsom. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Politics predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.