Incumbent Madeleine Dean holds a commanding lead in Pennsylvania’s 4th Congressional District due to the area’s consistent Democratic lean, her established record since 2019, and substantial fundraising advantage. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, following uncontested primaries in May. Aurora Stuski, the Republican nominee and local business owner, faces structural headwinds in a district where recent cycles have favored Democrats by wide margins. Trader consensus around 94–95% for Dean aligns with these fundamentals and the absence of competitive polling or late shifts. Unforeseen developments, such as a major scandal, health event, or national wave altering turnout, remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-04 House Election Winner
PA-04 House Election Winner
$19,259 Vol.
$19,259 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Madeleine Dean (D)
95%
Aurora Stuski (R)
6%
$19,259 Vol.
$19,259 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Madeleine Dean (D)
$6,759 Vol.
95%
Aurora Stuski (R)
$12,501 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Madeleine Dean holds a commanding lead in Pennsylvania’s 4th Congressional District due to the area’s consistent Democratic lean, her established record since 2019, and substantial fundraising advantage. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, following uncontested primaries in May. Aurora Stuski, the Republican nominee and local business owner, faces structural headwinds in a district where recent cycles have favored Democrats by wide margins. Trader consensus around 94–95% for Dean aligns with these fundamentals and the absence of competitive polling or late shifts. Unforeseen developments, such as a major scandal, health event, or national wave altering turnout, remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$19,259End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Madeleine Dean holds a commanding lead in Pennsylvania’s 4th Congressional District due to the area’s consistent Democratic lean, her established record since 2019, and substantial fundraising advantage. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, following uncontested primaries in May. Aurora Stuski, the Republican nominee and local business owner, faces structural headwinds in a district where recent cycles have favored Democrats by wide margins. Trader consensus around 94–95% for Dean aligns with these fundamentals and the absence of competitive polling or late shifts. Unforeseen developments, such as a major scandal, health event, or national wave altering turnout, remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,259End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Madeleine Dean holds a commanding lead in Pennsylvania’s 4th Congressional District due to the area’s consistent Democratic lean, her established record since 2019, and substantial fundraising advantage. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, following uncontested primaries in May. Aurora Stuski, the Republican nominee and local business owner, faces structural headwinds in a district where recent cycles have favored Democrats by wide margins. Trader consensus around 94–95% for Dean aligns with these fundamentals and the absence of competitive polling or late shifts. Unforeseen developments, such as a major scandal, health event, or national wave altering turnout, remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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