Incumbent Democratic Representative Madeleine Dean faces Republican nominee Aurora Stuski in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district, a Philadelphia-suburban seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. Dean’s unopposed primary victory in May 2026 and her 59 percent margin in 2024 underpin trader consensus that heavily favors the Democratic nominee. The district’s consistent partisan lean, combined with limited recent developments that would alter its trajectory, sustains the wide gap in implied probabilities. Late-cycle events such as an unexpected scandal, health development, or unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the margin, though historical voting patterns and current ratings indicate substantial structural barriers to an upset.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
PA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$13,050 Объем
$13,050 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
93%
Республиканская партия
6%
$13,050 Объем
$13,050 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$4,333 Объем
93%
Республиканская партия
$8,717 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Madeleine Dean faces Republican nominee Aurora Stuski in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district, a Philadelphia-suburban seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. Dean’s unopposed primary victory in May 2026 and her 59 percent margin in 2024 underpin trader consensus that heavily favors the Democratic nominee. The district’s consistent partisan lean, combined with limited recent developments that would alter its trajectory, sustains the wide gap in implied probabilities. Late-cycle events such as an unexpected scandal, health development, or unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the margin, though historical voting patterns and current ratings indicate substantial structural barriers to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Объем
$13,050Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Madeleine Dean faces Republican nominee Aurora Stuski in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district, a Philadelphia-suburban seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. Dean’s unopposed primary victory in May 2026 and her 59 percent margin in 2024 underpin trader consensus that heavily favors the Democratic nominee. The district’s consistent partisan lean, combined with limited recent developments that would alter its trajectory, sustains the wide gap in implied probabilities. Late-cycle events such as an unexpected scandal, health development, or unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the margin, though historical voting patterns and current ratings indicate substantial structural barriers to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$13,050Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Madeleine Dean faces Republican nominee Aurora Stuski in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district, a Philadelphia-suburban seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. Dean’s unopposed primary victory in May 2026 and her 59 percent margin in 2024 underpin trader consensus that heavily favors the Democratic nominee. The district’s consistent partisan lean, combined with limited recent developments that would alter its trajectory, sustains the wide gap in implied probabilities. Late-cycle events such as an unexpected scandal, health development, or unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the margin, though historical voting patterns and current ratings indicate substantial structural barriers to an upset.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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