David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in an upset victory during the August 11 primary, defeating progressive challenger Francesca Hong by a narrow margin after a late campaign surge and endorsement from outgoing Governor Tony Evers. This positions the Milwaukee County executive as the clear Democratic nominee in the November 3 open-seat contest against Republican U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany, who faced no significant primary opposition and holds an endorsement from President Trump. Recent pre-primary and early general-election polling showed Crowley holding a slight edge over Tiffany in the battleground state, where turnout patterns, swing-voter blocs, and economic messaging have historically decided close races. Trader consensus reflected in current market prices assigns Crowley the leading implied probability, driven by his primary momentum and perceived electability advantages in a competitive environment with roughly 80 days until the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWisconsin Governor Election Winner
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner
$262,493 Vol.
$262,493 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
David Crowley (D)
77%
Tom Tiffany (R)
24%
$262,493 Vol.
$262,493 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
David Crowley (D)
$88,058 Vol.
77%
Tom Tiffany (R)
$174,434 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in an upset victory during the August 11 primary, defeating progressive challenger Francesca Hong by a narrow margin after a late campaign surge and endorsement from outgoing Governor Tony Evers. This positions the Milwaukee County executive as the clear Democratic nominee in the November 3 open-seat contest against Republican U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany, who faced no significant primary opposition and holds an endorsement from President Trump. Recent pre-primary and early general-election polling showed Crowley holding a slight edge over Tiffany in the battleground state, where turnout patterns, swing-voter blocs, and economic messaging have historically decided close races. Trader consensus reflected in current market prices assigns Crowley the leading implied probability, driven by his primary momentum and perceived electability advantages in a competitive environment with roughly 80 days until the general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$262,493End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in an upset victory during the August 11 primary, defeating progressive challenger Francesca Hong by a narrow margin after a late campaign surge and endorsement from outgoing Governor Tony Evers. This positions the Milwaukee County executive as the clear Democratic nominee in the November 3 open-seat contest against Republican U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany, who faced no significant primary opposition and holds an endorsement from President Trump. Recent pre-primary and early general-election polling showed Crowley holding a slight edge over Tiffany in the battleground state, where turnout patterns, swing-voter blocs, and economic messaging have historically decided close races. Trader consensus reflected in current market prices assigns Crowley the leading implied probability, driven by his primary momentum and perceived electability advantages in a competitive environment with roughly 80 days until the general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$262,493End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in an upset victory during the August 11 primary, defeating progressive challenger Francesca Hong by a narrow margin after a late campaign surge and endorsement from outgoing Governor Tony Evers. This positions the Milwaukee County executive as the clear Democratic nominee in the November 3 open-seat contest against Republican U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany, who faced no significant primary opposition and holds an endorsement from President Trump. Recent pre-primary and early general-election polling showed Crowley holding a slight edge over Tiffany in the battleground state, where turnout patterns, swing-voter blocs, and economic messaging have historically decided close races. Trader consensus reflected in current market prices assigns Crowley the leading implied probability, driven by his primary momentum and perceived electability advantages in a competitive environment with roughly 80 days until the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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