Alaska’s upcoming August 18 top-four primaries for both the U.S. Senate and governor’s race, followed by ranked-choice voting in November, create substantial uncertainty that positions “Other” outcomes highest in trader consensus. The Senate contest pits Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan against Democrat Mary Peltola in a toss-up rated by multiple forecasters, with recent polls showing the candidates within a few points amid Peltola’s strong fundraising edge. The open gubernatorial race features a fragmented field of more than a dozen candidates, including Democrats Tom Begich and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins alongside Republicans such as Dave Bronson and Bernadette Wilson, with no clear frontrunner emerging in late polling. These dynamics favor split results or less common pairings over clean party sweeps, though Peltola’s competitiveness keeps Democratic gains plausible while Republican structural advantages in the state sustain mixed and Republican-leaning scenarios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDems sweep 37%
Reps sweep 31%
Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate 20%
Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate 18%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Dems sweep
37%
Reps sweep
31%
Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate
20%
Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate
18%
Dems sweep 37%
Reps sweep 31%
Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate 20%
Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate 18%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Dems sweep
$75 Vol.
37%
Reps sweep
$0 Vol.
31%
Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate
$0 Vol.
20%
Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate
$20 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Alaska’s upcoming August 18 top-four primaries for both the U.S. Senate and governor’s race, followed by ranked-choice voting in November, create substantial uncertainty that positions “Other” outcomes highest in trader consensus. The Senate contest pits Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan against Democrat Mary Peltola in a toss-up rated by multiple forecasters, with recent polls showing the candidates within a few points amid Peltola’s strong fundraising edge. The open gubernatorial race features a fragmented field of more than a dozen candidates, including Democrats Tom Begich and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins alongside Republicans such as Dave Bronson and Bernadette Wilson, with no clear frontrunner emerging in late polling. These dynamics favor split results or less common pairings over clean party sweeps, though Peltola’s competitiveness keeps Democratic gains plausible while Republican structural advantages in the state sustain mixed and Republican-leaning scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 11:07 AM ET
Volume
$95End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Alaska’s upcoming August 18 top-four primaries for both the U.S. Senate and governor’s race, followed by ranked-choice voting in November, create substantial uncertainty that positions “Other” outcomes highest in trader consensus. The Senate contest pits Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan against Democrat Mary Peltola in a toss-up rated by multiple forecasters, with recent polls showing the candidates within a few points amid Peltola’s strong fundraising edge. The open gubernatorial race features a fragmented field of more than a dozen candidates, including Democrats Tom Begich and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins alongside Republicans such as Dave Bronson and Bernadette Wilson, with no clear frontrunner emerging in late polling. These dynamics favor split results or less common pairings over clean party sweeps, though Peltola’s competitiveness keeps Democratic gains plausible while Republican structural advantages in the state sustain mixed and Republican-leaning scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$95End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alaska’s upcoming August 18 top-four primaries for both the U.S. Senate and governor’s race, followed by ranked-choice voting in November, create substantial uncertainty that positions “Other” outcomes highest in trader consensus. The Senate contest pits Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan against Democrat Mary Peltola in a toss-up rated by multiple forecasters, with recent polls showing the candidates within a few points amid Peltola’s strong fundraising edge. The open gubernatorial race features a fragmented field of more than a dozen candidates, including Democrats Tom Begich and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins alongside Republicans such as Dave Bronson and Bernadette Wilson, with no clear frontrunner emerging in late polling. These dynamics favor split results or less common pairings over clean party sweeps, though Peltola’s competitiveness keeps Democratic gains plausible while Republican structural advantages in the state sustain mixed and Republican-leaning scenarios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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