**Trader consensus heavily favors 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination, reflecting an unusually high number of primary defeats driven by progressive challenges, generational turnover, and anti-establishment sentiment.** Multiple upsets have already occurred in 2026, including defeats of Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York (backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani allies), Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, and others in Texas amid redistricting and ideological contests. Reports through early September indicate at least six or seven Democratic losses, exceeding typical postwar averages and aligning with broader patterns of voters prioritizing younger or left-leaning alternatives on issues like foreign policy and corporate influence. Remaining late primaries and any additional surprises could push totals into the leading range, consistent with the current implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
How many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
10-12 84.8%
13-15 8.2%
7-9 1.3%
$51,298 Vol.
$51,298 Vol.
7-9
1%
10-12
85%
13-15
8%
10-12 84.8%
13-15 8.2%
7-9 1.3%
$51,298 Vol.
$51,298 Vol.
7-9
$14,598 Vol.
1%
10-12
$11,153 Vol.
85%
13-15
$5,095 Vol.
8%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus heavily favors 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination, reflecting an unusually high number of primary defeats driven by progressive challenges, generational turnover, and anti-establishment sentiment.**
Multiple upsets have already occurred in 2026, including defeats of Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York (backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani allies), Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, and others in Texas amid redistricting and ideological contests. Reports through early September indicate at least six or seven Democratic losses, exceeding typical postwar averages and aligning with broader patterns of voters prioritizing younger or left-leaning alternatives on issues like foreign policy and corporate influence. Remaining late primaries and any additional surprises could push totals into the leading range, consistent with the current implied probability.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Market Opened: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Volume
$51,298Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus heavily favors 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination, reflecting an unusually high number of primary defeats driven by progressive challenges, generational turnover, and anti-establishment sentiment.**
Multiple upsets have already occurred in 2026, including defeats of Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York (backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani allies), Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, and others in Texas amid redistricting and ideological contests. Reports through early September indicate at least six or seven Democratic losses, exceeding typical postwar averages and aligning with broader patterns of voters prioritizing younger or left-leaning alternatives on issues like foreign policy and corporate influence. Remaining late primaries and any additional surprises could push totals into the leading range, consistent with the current implied probability.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$51,298Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus heavily favors 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination, reflecting an unusually high number of primary defeats driven by progressive challenges, generational turnover, and anti-establishment sentiment.** Multiple upsets have already occurred in 2026, including defeats of Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York (backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani allies), Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, and others in Texas amid redistricting and ideological contests. Reports through early September indicate at least six or seven Democratic losses, exceeding typical postwar averages and aligning with broader patterns of voters prioritizing younger or left-leaning alternatives on issues like foreign policy and corporate influence. Remaining late primaries and any additional surprises could push totals into the leading range, consistent with the current implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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