Recent polling averages show Democratic nominee James Talarico running even or narrowly ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in the statewide Texas U.S. Senate contest, with Talarico posting strong margins among independents, moderates, and Hispanic voters. This competitiveness stems from Paxton's May 2026 primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, which shifted the race into toss-up or lean-Republican territory according to forecasters like Cook and Sabato, alongside heavy outside spending targeting Paxton and Talarico's fundraising advantage. Collin County's suburban demographics and recent voting patterns have amplified trader expectations that Talarico could carry the county despite its historical Republican tilt, producing the current 78% implied probability for Talarico versus 21.5% for Paxton ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
James Talarico (D)
78%
Ken Paxton (R)
22%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
James Talarico (D)
$20 Vol.
78%
Ken Paxton (R)
$33 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Collin County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Collin County.Recent polling averages show Democratic nominee James Talarico running even or narrowly ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in the statewide Texas U.S. Senate contest, with Talarico posting strong margins among independents, moderates, and Hispanic voters. This competitiveness stems from Paxton's May 2026 primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, which shifted the race into toss-up or lean-Republican territory according to forecasters like Cook and Sabato, alongside heavy outside spending targeting Paxton and Talarico's fundraising advantage. Collin County's suburban demographics and recent voting patterns have amplified trader expectations that Talarico could carry the county despite its historical Republican tilt, producing the current 78% implied probability for Talarico versus 21.5% for Paxton ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Collin County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Collin County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Collin County.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Volume
$53End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 1:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Collin County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Collin County.Recent polling averages show Democratic nominee James Talarico running even or narrowly ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in the statewide Texas U.S. Senate contest, with Talarico posting strong margins among independents, moderates, and Hispanic voters. This competitiveness stems from Paxton's May 2026 primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, which shifted the race into toss-up or lean-Republican territory according to forecasters like Cook and Sabato, alongside heavy outside spending targeting Paxton and Talarico's fundraising advantage. Collin County's suburban demographics and recent voting patterns have amplified trader expectations that Talarico could carry the county despite its historical Republican tilt, producing the current 78% implied probability for Talarico versus 21.5% for Paxton ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Collin County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Collin County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Collin County.
Volume
$53End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 1:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages show Democratic nominee James Talarico running even or narrowly ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in the statewide Texas U.S. Senate contest, with Talarico posting strong margins among independents, moderates, and Hispanic voters. This competitiveness stems from Paxton's May 2026 primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, which shifted the race into toss-up or lean-Republican territory according to forecasters like Cook and Sabato, alongside heavy outside spending targeting Paxton and Talarico's fundraising advantage. Collin County's suburban demographics and recent voting patterns have amplified trader expectations that Talarico could carry the county despite its historical Republican tilt, producing the current 78% implied probability for Talarico versus 21.5% for Paxton ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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