Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in New York’s 18th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.3%. The mid-Hudson Valley seat carries a modest Democratic lean on the partisan voter index, and Ryan secured reelection by double digits in the prior cycle despite a narrow presidential margin. Both parties’ primaries were uncontested in June, leaving Ryan to face Republican Jacqueline Auringer in the general. A July poll showed Ryan ahead by 14 points, and forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as national economic shifts, candidate health issues, or turnout surprises could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-18 House Election Winner
NY-18 House Election Winner
$42,868 Vol.
$42,868 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
6%
$42,868 Vol.
$42,868 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$33,491 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$9,377 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in New York’s 18th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.3%. The mid-Hudson Valley seat carries a modest Democratic lean on the partisan voter index, and Ryan secured reelection by double digits in the prior cycle despite a narrow presidential margin. Both parties’ primaries were uncontested in June, leaving Ryan to face Republican Jacqueline Auringer in the general. A July poll showed Ryan ahead by 14 points, and forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as national economic shifts, candidate health issues, or turnout surprises could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$42,868End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in New York’s 18th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.3%. The mid-Hudson Valley seat carries a modest Democratic lean on the partisan voter index, and Ryan secured reelection by double digits in the prior cycle despite a narrow presidential margin. Both parties’ primaries were uncontested in June, leaving Ryan to face Republican Jacqueline Auringer in the general. A July poll showed Ryan ahead by 14 points, and forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as national economic shifts, candidate health issues, or turnout surprises could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,868End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in New York’s 18th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.3%. The mid-Hudson Valley seat carries a modest Democratic lean on the partisan voter index, and Ryan secured reelection by double digits in the prior cycle despite a narrow presidential margin. Both parties’ primaries were uncontested in June, leaving Ryan to face Republican Jacqueline Auringer in the general. A July poll showed Ryan ahead by 14 points, and forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as national economic shifts, candidate health issues, or turnout surprises could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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