Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran's commanding fundraising advantage—nearly $3.9 million raised and $2.6 million cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing his five Republican primary challengers combined—bolsters trader consensus at 87.5% for a Democratic hold in California's 45th Congressional District. The top-two primary on June 2 features a fragmented GOP field including Westminster Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen, ex-Cerritos Mayor Chuong Vo, and others, likely ensuring Tran's advancement amid the district's eight-point Democratic registration edge and D+3 Cook Partisan Voting Index. Recent mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 has tilted the district further leftward, with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Lean Democratic, up from earlier toss-up status following Tran's narrow 2024 victory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-45 House Election Winner
CA-45 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
88%
Republican Party
11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,642 Vol.
88%
Republican Party
$5,910 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran's commanding fundraising advantage—nearly $3.9 million raised and $2.6 million cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing his five Republican primary challengers combined—bolsters trader consensus at 87.5% for a Democratic hold in California's 45th Congressional District. The top-two primary on June 2 features a fragmented GOP field including Westminster Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen, ex-Cerritos Mayor Chuong Vo, and others, likely ensuring Tran's advancement amid the district's eight-point Democratic registration edge and D+3 Cook Partisan Voting Index. Recent mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 has tilted the district further leftward, with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Lean Democratic, up from earlier toss-up status following Tran's narrow 2024 victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$7,552End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran's commanding fundraising advantage—nearly $3.9 million raised and $2.6 million cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing his five Republican primary challengers combined—bolsters trader consensus at 87.5% for a Democratic hold in California's 45th Congressional District. The top-two primary on June 2 features a fragmented GOP field including Westminster Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen, ex-Cerritos Mayor Chuong Vo, and others, likely ensuring Tran's advancement amid the district's eight-point Democratic registration edge and D+3 Cook Partisan Voting Index. Recent mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 has tilted the district further leftward, with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Lean Democratic, up from earlier toss-up status following Tran's narrow 2024 victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$7,552End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran's commanding fundraising advantage—nearly $3.9 million raised and $2.6 million cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing his five Republican primary challengers combined—bolsters trader consensus at 87.5% for a Democratic hold in California's 45th Congressional District. The top-two primary on June 2 features a fragmented GOP field including Westminster Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen, ex-Cerritos Mayor Chuong Vo, and others, likely ensuring Tran's advancement amid the district's eight-point Democratic registration edge and D+3 Cook Partisan Voting Index. Recent mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 has tilted the district further leftward, with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Lean Democratic, up from earlier toss-up status following Tran's narrow 2024 victory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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