Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith holds a commanding position in Washington's 9th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's strong Democratic lean, his nearly three-decade tenure, and decisive primary performance. The district's Partisan Voter Index sits at D+22, with Kamala Harris carrying it by nearly 20 points in 2024, while top-two primary results showed Smith advancing comfortably ahead of Republican Doug Basler and multiple left-leaning challengers who split the vote. Smith has raised nearly $1.9 million compared to Basler's roughly $100,000, and independent ratings classify the race as solid or safe Democratic. Traders' implied probability aligns with these structural factors and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments. Late-breaking events such as a significant scandal or unforeseen health issue remain the primary scenarios that could alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWA-09 House Election Winner
WA-09 House Election Winner
$51,337 Vol.
$51,337 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Adam Smith (D)
96%
Doug Basler (R)
2%
$51,337 Vol.
$51,337 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Adam Smith (D)
$11,845 Vol.
96%
Doug Basler (R)
$39,492 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith holds a commanding position in Washington's 9th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's strong Democratic lean, his nearly three-decade tenure, and decisive primary performance. The district's Partisan Voter Index sits at D+22, with Kamala Harris carrying it by nearly 20 points in 2024, while top-two primary results showed Smith advancing comfortably ahead of Republican Doug Basler and multiple left-leaning challengers who split the vote. Smith has raised nearly $1.9 million compared to Basler's roughly $100,000, and independent ratings classify the race as solid or safe Democratic. Traders' implied probability aligns with these structural factors and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments. Late-breaking events such as a significant scandal or unforeseen health issue remain the primary scenarios that could alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$51,337End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith holds a commanding position in Washington's 9th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's strong Democratic lean, his nearly three-decade tenure, and decisive primary performance. The district's Partisan Voter Index sits at D+22, with Kamala Harris carrying it by nearly 20 points in 2024, while top-two primary results showed Smith advancing comfortably ahead of Republican Doug Basler and multiple left-leaning challengers who split the vote. Smith has raised nearly $1.9 million compared to Basler's roughly $100,000, and independent ratings classify the race as solid or safe Democratic. Traders' implied probability aligns with these structural factors and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments. Late-breaking events such as a significant scandal or unforeseen health issue remain the primary scenarios that could alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$51,337End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith holds a commanding position in Washington's 9th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's strong Democratic lean, his nearly three-decade tenure, and decisive primary performance. The district's Partisan Voter Index sits at D+22, with Kamala Harris carrying it by nearly 20 points in 2024, while top-two primary results showed Smith advancing comfortably ahead of Republican Doug Basler and multiple left-leaning challengers who split the vote. Smith has raised nearly $1.9 million compared to Basler's roughly $100,000, and independent ratings classify the race as solid or safe Democratic. Traders' implied probability aligns with these structural factors and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments. Late-breaking events such as a significant scandal or unforeseen health issue remain the primary scenarios that could alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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