Incumbent Kim Schrier’s commanding position in the WA-08 race stems from her decisive top-two primary victory in August 2026, where she secured over 53 percent of the vote in a district rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. Her established incumbency since 2019, combined with roughly $3 million in fundraising and broad support across suburban and exurban counties, has produced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Republican challenger Spencer Meline advanced with under 16 percent after splitting the GOP field. The district’s modest D+3 partisan lean and Schrier’s consistent re-election record reinforce the current 97-plus percent implied probability. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected national wave, or health event remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$22,656 Vol.
$22,656 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Kim Schrier (D)
97%
Spencer Meline (R)
3%
$22,656 Vol.
$22,656 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Kim Schrier (D)
$9,508 Vol.
97%
Spencer Meline (R)
$13,148 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Kim Schrier’s commanding position in the WA-08 race stems from her decisive top-two primary victory in August 2026, where she secured over 53 percent of the vote in a district rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. Her established incumbency since 2019, combined with roughly $3 million in fundraising and broad support across suburban and exurban counties, has produced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Republican challenger Spencer Meline advanced with under 16 percent after splitting the GOP field. The district’s modest D+3 partisan lean and Schrier’s consistent re-election record reinforce the current 97-plus percent implied probability. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected national wave, or health event remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$22,656End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Kim Schrier’s commanding position in the WA-08 race stems from her decisive top-two primary victory in August 2026, where she secured over 53 percent of the vote in a district rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. Her established incumbency since 2019, combined with roughly $3 million in fundraising and broad support across suburban and exurban counties, has produced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Republican challenger Spencer Meline advanced with under 16 percent after splitting the GOP field. The district’s modest D+3 partisan lean and Schrier’s consistent re-election record reinforce the current 97-plus percent implied probability. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected national wave, or health event remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,656End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Kim Schrier’s commanding position in the WA-08 race stems from her decisive top-two primary victory in August 2026, where she secured over 53 percent of the vote in a district rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. Her established incumbency since 2019, combined with roughly $3 million in fundraising and broad support across suburban and exurban counties, has produced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Republican challenger Spencer Meline advanced with under 16 percent after splitting the GOP field. The district’s modest D+3 partisan lean and Schrier’s consistent re-election record reinforce the current 97-plus percent implied probability. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected national wave, or health event remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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