Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District, where traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. The district's D+5 partisan voter index, suburban composition across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties, and Conaway's unopposed primary win underpin the consensus. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, citing historical incumbent re-election rates above 90% and Conaway's established fundraising lead. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, who prevailed in a June primary, faces structural headwinds from the district's voter registration edge and limited reported resources. A major national Republican wave, late scandal, or turnout surge could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability events before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-03 House Election Winner
NJ-03 House Election Winner
$29,309 Vol.
$29,309 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$29,309 Vol.
$29,309 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$13,546 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$15,763 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District, where traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. The district's D+5 partisan voter index, suburban composition across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties, and Conaway's unopposed primary win underpin the consensus. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, citing historical incumbent re-election rates above 90% and Conaway's established fundraising lead. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, who prevailed in a June primary, faces structural headwinds from the district's voter registration edge and limited reported resources. A major national Republican wave, late scandal, or turnout surge could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability events before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$29,309End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District, where traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. The district's D+5 partisan voter index, suburban composition across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties, and Conaway's unopposed primary win underpin the consensus. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, citing historical incumbent re-election rates above 90% and Conaway's established fundraising lead. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, who prevailed in a June primary, faces structural headwinds from the district's voter registration edge and limited reported resources. A major national Republican wave, late scandal, or turnout surge could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability events before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$29,309End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District, where traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. The district's D+5 partisan voter index, suburban composition across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties, and Conaway's unopposed primary win underpin the consensus. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, citing historical incumbent re-election rates above 90% and Conaway's established fundraising lead. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, who prevailed in a June primary, faces structural headwinds from the district's voter registration edge and limited reported resources. A major national Republican wave, late scandal, or turnout surge could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability events before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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