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icon for CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)
Politics·Midterms

CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)

icon for CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)
Politics·Midterms

CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)

Polymarket

$22,288 Vol.

Polymarket

$22,288 Vol.

Aisha Wahab

$13,037 Vol.

77%

Melissa Hernandez

$9,251 Vol.

23%

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab holds the leading position in the CA-14 general election market following her August 18 special election victory over Melissa Hernandez by a 53-47 margin, which installed her as the Democratic incumbent for the remainder of the term. The solidly Democratic district, with voter registration favoring the party by roughly 50% to 17%, aligns with historical patterns of high re-election rates for sitting members. Hernandez, a former Dublin mayor and BART board president, advanced as the top-two finisher in both the June special and regular primaries but trails in fundraising and endorsements for the November contest. Minor candidates, including several Republicans, have not consolidated support or raised comparable resources. Late external spending in the special election did not shift the result.

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,288
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab holds the leading position in the CA-14 general election market following her August 18 special election victory over Melissa Hernandez by a 53-47 margin, which installed her as the Democratic incumbent for the remainder of the term. The solidly Democratic district, with voter registration favoring the party by roughly 50% to 17%, aligns with historical patterns of high re-election rates for sitting members. Hernandez, a former Dublin mayor and BART board president, advanced as the top-two finisher in both the June special and regular primaries but trails in fundraising and endorsements for the November contest. Minor candidates, including several Republicans, have not consolidated support or raised comparable resources. Late external spending in the special election did not shift the result.

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,288
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Aisha Wahab" at 77%, followed by "Melissa Hernandez" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 77¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)" has generated $22.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)" is "Aisha Wahab" at 77%, meaning the market assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Melissa Hernandez" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.