Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo's commanding position in the solidly Democratic CA-16 district drives trader consensus toward an 89% implied probability for a Democratic winner, reflecting the Silicon Valley area's heavy blue lean—Kamala Harris carried 72% there in 2024—and his dominant fundraising with over $3 million raised and $2 million cash on hand as of late March. Weak Republican challengers Kevin Johnson and Peter Sundin Soulé, alongside no-party-preference candidate Jotham Stein, face long odds in the June 2 top-two primary, where early voting begins May 4. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, solidifying the safe Democratic rating from Cook Political Report and others.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-16 House Election Winner
CA-16 House Election Winner
$72,924 Vol.
$72,924 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
89%
Republican Party
7%
$72,924 Vol.
$72,924 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$50,067 Vol.
89%
Republican Party
$22,857 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo's commanding position in the solidly Democratic CA-16 district drives trader consensus toward an 89% implied probability for a Democratic winner, reflecting the Silicon Valley area's heavy blue lean—Kamala Harris carried 72% there in 2024—and his dominant fundraising with over $3 million raised and $2 million cash on hand as of late March. Weak Republican challengers Kevin Johnson and Peter Sundin Soulé, alongside no-party-preference candidate Jotham Stein, face long odds in the June 2 top-two primary, where early voting begins May 4. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, solidifying the safe Democratic rating from Cook Political Report and others.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$72,924End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo's commanding position in the solidly Democratic CA-16 district drives trader consensus toward an 89% implied probability for a Democratic winner, reflecting the Silicon Valley area's heavy blue lean—Kamala Harris carried 72% there in 2024—and his dominant fundraising with over $3 million raised and $2 million cash on hand as of late March. Weak Republican challengers Kevin Johnson and Peter Sundin Soulé, alongside no-party-preference candidate Jotham Stein, face long odds in the June 2 top-two primary, where early voting begins May 4. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, solidifying the safe Democratic rating from Cook Political Report and others.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$72,924End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo's commanding position in the solidly Democratic CA-16 district drives trader consensus toward an 89% implied probability for a Democratic winner, reflecting the Silicon Valley area's heavy blue lean—Kamala Harris carried 72% there in 2024—and his dominant fundraising with over $3 million raised and $2 million cash on hand as of late March. Weak Republican challengers Kevin Johnson and Peter Sundin Soulé, alongside no-party-preference candidate Jotham Stein, face long odds in the June 2 top-two primary, where early voting begins May 4. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, solidifying the safe Democratic rating from Cook Political Report and others.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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