Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in Arizona’s 9th congressional district, a solidly Republican seat spanning western Arizona counties with a consistent history of favoring GOP candidates by wide margins. Gosar’s long tenure since 2011, substantial fundraising edge of roughly $303,000 in cash on hand compared with Democrat Dani Sterbinsky’s $25,000, and recent NRA endorsement reinforce his position ahead of the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the race as safe or solid Republican, aligning with trader consensus reflected in current pricing. A major late-cycle scandal, significant national Democratic surge, or unexpected turnout shift in rural areas could narrow the gap, though such developments remain uncommon in this district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-09 House Election Winner
AZ-09 House Election Winner
$26,252 Vol.
$26,252 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Paul Gosar (R)
95%
Dani Sterbinsky (D)
4%
$26,252 Vol.
$26,252 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Paul Gosar (R)
$10,243 Vol.
95%
Dani Sterbinsky (D)
$16,009 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in Arizona’s 9th congressional district, a solidly Republican seat spanning western Arizona counties with a consistent history of favoring GOP candidates by wide margins. Gosar’s long tenure since 2011, substantial fundraising edge of roughly $303,000 in cash on hand compared with Democrat Dani Sterbinsky’s $25,000, and recent NRA endorsement reinforce his position ahead of the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the race as safe or solid Republican, aligning with trader consensus reflected in current pricing. A major late-cycle scandal, significant national Democratic surge, or unexpected turnout shift in rural areas could narrow the gap, though such developments remain uncommon in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$26,252End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in Arizona’s 9th congressional district, a solidly Republican seat spanning western Arizona counties with a consistent history of favoring GOP candidates by wide margins. Gosar’s long tenure since 2011, substantial fundraising edge of roughly $303,000 in cash on hand compared with Democrat Dani Sterbinsky’s $25,000, and recent NRA endorsement reinforce his position ahead of the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the race as safe or solid Republican, aligning with trader consensus reflected in current pricing. A major late-cycle scandal, significant national Democratic surge, or unexpected turnout shift in rural areas could narrow the gap, though such developments remain uncommon in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,252End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in Arizona’s 9th congressional district, a solidly Republican seat spanning western Arizona counties with a consistent history of favoring GOP candidates by wide margins. Gosar’s long tenure since 2011, substantial fundraising edge of roughly $303,000 in cash on hand compared with Democrat Dani Sterbinsky’s $25,000, and recent NRA endorsement reinforce his position ahead of the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the race as safe or solid Republican, aligning with trader consensus reflected in current pricing. A major late-cycle scandal, significant national Democratic surge, or unexpected turnout shift in rural areas could narrow the gap, though such developments remain uncommon in this district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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