The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s September resignation, with Labour selecting Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali and the Greens naming leader Zack Polanski as their candidate. In the 2024 general election Labour took 48.9 percent here, but May 2026 local elections across the constituency’s wards showed Labour on 38.8 percent and the Greens on 28.8 percent. Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement of Polanski adds further pressure by targeting 2024 independent voters. These local trends, combined with typical by-election turnout patterns and the absence of published constituency polling, keep trader probabilities clustered between 35 and 45 percent for Labour’s share. Clear separation could emerge from final-week canvassing data, differential turnout among core Labour versus Green-leaning voters, or late shifts in national sentiment ahead of polling day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated35-40% 25%
50%+ 19%
40-45% 18%
45-50% 18%
NEW
NEW
Oct 8, 2026
<30%
9%
30-35%
13%
35-40%
25%
40-45%
18%
45-50%
18%
50%+
19%
35-40% 25%
50%+ 19%
40-45% 18%
45-50% 18%
NEW
NEW
Oct 8, 2026
<30%
$77 Vol.
9%
30-35%
$76 Vol.
13%
35-40%
$87 Vol.
25%
40-45%
$79 Vol.
18%
45-50%
$96 Vol.
18%
50%+
$158 Vol.
19%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s September resignation, with Labour selecting Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali and the Greens naming leader Zack Polanski as their candidate. In the 2024 general election Labour took 48.9 percent here, but May 2026 local elections across the constituency’s wards showed Labour on 38.8 percent and the Greens on 28.8 percent. Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement of Polanski adds further pressure by targeting 2024 independent voters. These local trends, combined with typical by-election turnout patterns and the absence of published constituency polling, keep trader probabilities clustered between 35 and 45 percent for Labour’s share. Clear separation could emerge from final-week canvassing data, differential turnout among core Labour versus Green-leaning voters, or late shifts in national sentiment ahead of polling day.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
Volume
$573End Date
Oct 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s September resignation, with Labour selecting Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali and the Greens naming leader Zack Polanski as their candidate. In the 2024 general election Labour took 48.9 percent here, but May 2026 local elections across the constituency’s wards showed Labour on 38.8 percent and the Greens on 28.8 percent. Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement of Polanski adds further pressure by targeting 2024 independent voters. These local trends, combined with typical by-election turnout patterns and the absence of published constituency polling, keep trader probabilities clustered between 35 and 45 percent for Labour’s share. Clear separation could emerge from final-week canvassing data, differential turnout among core Labour versus Green-leaning voters, or late shifts in national sentiment ahead of polling day.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$573End Date
Oct 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s September resignation, with Labour selecting Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali and the Greens naming leader Zack Polanski as their candidate. In the 2024 general election Labour took 48.9 percent here, but May 2026 local elections across the constituency’s wards showed Labour on 38.8 percent and the Greens on 28.8 percent. Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement of Polanski adds further pressure by targeting 2024 independent voters. These local trends, combined with typical by-election turnout patterns and the absence of published constituency polling, keep trader probabilities clustered between 35 and 45 percent for Labour’s share. Clear separation could emerge from final-week canvassing data, differential turnout among core Labour versus Green-leaning voters, or late shifts in national sentiment ahead of polling day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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