Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district, a solidly Republican seat with an R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings of Solid or Safe Republican from outlets including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Kelly, an eight-term representative and Ways and Means Committee member, faced no primary opposition in May 2026 and maintains a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.1 million in cash on hand compared to Democratic challenger Justin Wagner's roughly $30,000. Wagner, an Iraq War veteran and engineer, also ran unopposed in the Democratic primary but has not generated notable momentum in this northwestern Pennsylvania district. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though outcomes could shift with a significant Republican underperformance in the national midterm environment, late campaign developments, or unforeseen events affecting voter turnout in the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-16 House Election Winner
PA-16 House Election Winner
$40,188 Vol.
$40,188 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Mike Kelly (R)
92%
Justin Wagner (D)
7%
$40,188 Vol.
$40,188 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Mike Kelly (R)
$23,876 Vol.
92%
Justin Wagner (D)
$16,312 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district, a solidly Republican seat with an R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings of Solid or Safe Republican from outlets including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Kelly, an eight-term representative and Ways and Means Committee member, faced no primary opposition in May 2026 and maintains a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.1 million in cash on hand compared to Democratic challenger Justin Wagner's roughly $30,000. Wagner, an Iraq War veteran and engineer, also ran unopposed in the Democratic primary but has not generated notable momentum in this northwestern Pennsylvania district. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though outcomes could shift with a significant Republican underperformance in the national midterm environment, late campaign developments, or unforeseen events affecting voter turnout in the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$40,188End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district, a solidly Republican seat with an R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings of Solid or Safe Republican from outlets including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Kelly, an eight-term representative and Ways and Means Committee member, faced no primary opposition in May 2026 and maintains a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.1 million in cash on hand compared to Democratic challenger Justin Wagner's roughly $30,000. Wagner, an Iraq War veteran and engineer, also ran unopposed in the Democratic primary but has not generated notable momentum in this northwestern Pennsylvania district. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though outcomes could shift with a significant Republican underperformance in the national midterm environment, late campaign developments, or unforeseen events affecting voter turnout in the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$40,188End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district, a solidly Republican seat with an R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings of Solid or Safe Republican from outlets including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Kelly, an eight-term representative and Ways and Means Committee member, faced no primary opposition in May 2026 and maintains a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.1 million in cash on hand compared to Democratic challenger Justin Wagner's roughly $30,000. Wagner, an Iraq War veteran and engineer, also ran unopposed in the Democratic primary but has not generated notable momentum in this northwestern Pennsylvania district. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though outcomes could shift with a significant Republican underperformance in the national midterm environment, late campaign developments, or unforeseen events affecting voter turnout in the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions