Republican incumbent Rudy Yakym holds a commanding lead in Indiana’s 2nd congressional district, reflected in the market’s 94.5% consensus for the Republican nominee ahead of the November 3 general election. The district’s R+13 Partisan Voter Index, Yakym’s 62.7% re-election margin in 2024, and consistent “Safe Republican” or “Solid Republican” ratings from Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ underpin trader pricing. Yakym’s substantial fundraising edge and unopposed Republican primary further reinforce the position, while Democratic nominee Jamee Decio’s primary victory has not shifted the underlying partisan fundamentals. Late developments such as a significant national polling swing, candidate withdrawal, or major scandal could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similarly rated districts indicate limited realistic pathways for an upset before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIN-02 House Election Winner
IN-02 House Election Winner
$32,089 Vol.
$32,089 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
5%
$32,089 Vol.
$32,089 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$24,110 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$7,978 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Rudy Yakym holds a commanding lead in Indiana’s 2nd congressional district, reflected in the market’s 94.5% consensus for the Republican nominee ahead of the November 3 general election. The district’s R+13 Partisan Voter Index, Yakym’s 62.7% re-election margin in 2024, and consistent “Safe Republican” or “Solid Republican” ratings from Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ underpin trader pricing. Yakym’s substantial fundraising edge and unopposed Republican primary further reinforce the position, while Democratic nominee Jamee Decio’s primary victory has not shifted the underlying partisan fundamentals. Late developments such as a significant national polling swing, candidate withdrawal, or major scandal could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similarly rated districts indicate limited realistic pathways for an upset before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$32,089End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Rudy Yakym holds a commanding lead in Indiana’s 2nd congressional district, reflected in the market’s 94.5% consensus for the Republican nominee ahead of the November 3 general election. The district’s R+13 Partisan Voter Index, Yakym’s 62.7% re-election margin in 2024, and consistent “Safe Republican” or “Solid Republican” ratings from Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ underpin trader pricing. Yakym’s substantial fundraising edge and unopposed Republican primary further reinforce the position, while Democratic nominee Jamee Decio’s primary victory has not shifted the underlying partisan fundamentals. Late developments such as a significant national polling swing, candidate withdrawal, or major scandal could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similarly rated districts indicate limited realistic pathways for an upset before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,089End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Rudy Yakym holds a commanding lead in Indiana’s 2nd congressional district, reflected in the market’s 94.5% consensus for the Republican nominee ahead of the November 3 general election. The district’s R+13 Partisan Voter Index, Yakym’s 62.7% re-election margin in 2024, and consistent “Safe Republican” or “Solid Republican” ratings from Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ underpin trader pricing. Yakym’s substantial fundraising edge and unopposed Republican primary further reinforce the position, while Democratic nominee Jamee Decio’s primary victory has not shifted the underlying partisan fundamentals. Late developments such as a significant national polling swing, candidate withdrawal, or major scandal could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similarly rated districts indicate limited realistic pathways for an upset before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions