Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson, the current Speaker of the House, anchors trader expectations in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district, a seat with a strong Republican tilt reflected in recent election margins exceeding 85 percent. His primary challengers include fellow Republicans and Democrats such as farmer Conrad Cable, yet the district’s voter composition and Johnson’s established name recognition limit their prospects. A recent Supreme Court ruling on the state’s congressional map has prompted redistricting discussions, but these changes have not altered the underlying partisan balance in northwestern Louisiana. With the November 2026 primary approaching under the state’s nonpartisan system, the current pricing captures the limited pathway for Democratic advances absent major shifts in turnout or unforeseen events.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
90%
民主党
11%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$844 Vol.
90%
民主党
$913 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson, the current Speaker of the House, anchors trader expectations in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district, a seat with a strong Republican tilt reflected in recent election margins exceeding 85 percent. His primary challengers include fellow Republicans and Democrats such as farmer Conrad Cable, yet the district’s voter composition and Johnson’s established name recognition limit their prospects. A recent Supreme Court ruling on the state’s congressional map has prompted redistricting discussions, but these changes have not altered the underlying partisan balance in northwestern Louisiana. With the November 2026 primary approaching under the state’s nonpartisan system, the current pricing captures the limited pathway for Democratic advances absent major shifts in turnout or unforeseen events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$1,757終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson, the current Speaker of the House, anchors trader expectations in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district, a seat with a strong Republican tilt reflected in recent election margins exceeding 85 percent. His primary challengers include fellow Republicans and Democrats such as farmer Conrad Cable, yet the district’s voter composition and Johnson’s established name recognition limit their prospects. A recent Supreme Court ruling on the state’s congressional map has prompted redistricting discussions, but these changes have not altered the underlying partisan balance in northwestern Louisiana. With the November 2026 primary approaching under the state’s nonpartisan system, the current pricing captures the limited pathway for Democratic advances absent major shifts in turnout or unforeseen events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$1,757終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson, the current Speaker of the House, anchors trader expectations in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district, a seat with a strong Republican tilt reflected in recent election margins exceeding 85 percent. His primary challengers include fellow Republicans and Democrats such as farmer Conrad Cable, yet the district’s voter composition and Johnson’s established name recognition limit their prospects. A recent Supreme Court ruling on the state’s congressional map has prompted redistricting discussions, but these changes have not altered the underlying partisan balance in northwestern Louisiana. With the November 2026 primary approaching under the state’s nonpartisan system, the current pricing captures the limited pathway for Democratic advances absent major shifts in turnout or unforeseen events.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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