Recent polling for Russia's September 2026 State Duma elections consistently places Yabloko support at 1–3 percent, well below the 5 percent party-list threshold required for proportional seats, consistent with its 1.2–1.3 percent result in 2021. Authorities have intensified administrative and legal pressure on the party, including barring dozens of candidates, fines, searches, and criminal cases tied to its anti-war platform. The Central Election Commission registered Yabloko’s federal list in late July 2026, yet this procedural step has not altered underlying voter trends or removed structural constraints on opposition campaigning. Exiled supporters have launched visibility efforts, but domestic polling shows no measurable lift. Traders therefore assign a high probability that Yabloko will again fall short of clearing the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRussia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
6% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
6% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Recent polling for Russia's September 2026 State Duma elections consistently places Yabloko support at 1–3 percent, well below the 5 percent party-list threshold required for proportional seats, consistent with its 1.2–1.3 percent result in 2021. Authorities have intensified administrative and legal pressure on the party, including barring dozens of candidates, fines, searches, and criminal cases tied to its anti-war platform. The Central Election Commission registered Yabloko’s federal list in late July 2026, yet this procedural step has not altered underlying voter trends or removed structural constraints on opposition campaigning. Exiled supporters have launched visibility efforts, but domestic polling shows no measurable lift. Traders therefore assign a high probability that Yabloko will again fall short of clearing the threshold.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,045End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Recent polling for Russia's September 2026 State Duma elections consistently places Yabloko support at 1–3 percent, well below the 5 percent party-list threshold required for proportional seats, consistent with its 1.2–1.3 percent result in 2021. Authorities have intensified administrative and legal pressure on the party, including barring dozens of candidates, fines, searches, and criminal cases tied to its anti-war platform. The Central Election Commission registered Yabloko’s federal list in late July 2026, yet this procedural step has not altered underlying voter trends or removed structural constraints on opposition campaigning. Exiled supporters have launched visibility efforts, but domestic polling shows no measurable lift. Traders therefore assign a high probability that Yabloko will again fall short of clearing the threshold.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$2,045End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Russia's September 2026 State Duma elections consistently places Yabloko support at 1–3 percent, well below the 5 percent party-list threshold required for proportional seats, consistent with its 1.2–1.3 percent result in 2021. Authorities have intensified administrative and legal pressure on the party, including barring dozens of candidates, fines, searches, and criminal cases tied to its anti-war platform. The Central Election Commission registered Yabloko’s federal list in late July 2026, yet this procedural step has not altered underlying voter trends or removed structural constraints on opposition campaigning. Exiled supporters have launched visibility efforts, but domestic polling shows no measurable lift. Traders therefore assign a high probability that Yabloko will again fall short of clearing the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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