Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott holds a consistent lead over Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa in polling for the November 3, 2026, Texas gubernatorial election, with recent surveys showing margins of 4–7 points and averages near Abbott +4–5. Abbott secured renomination easily in the March primary with roughly 82% of the vote, while Hinojosa emerged from a more competitive Democratic primary. Texas’s partisan lean and Abbott’s record as a three-term governor contribute to the wide gap in trader-implied probabilities. Recent August polls, including those from Texas Public Opinion Research and the University of Texas, show modest tightening driven by Hinojosa’s support among independents, Latino voters, and some moderates, though Abbott maintains advantages among white voters and maintains steady overall backing. No major campaign developments have shifted the race dramatically in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTexas Governor Election Winner
Texas Governor Election Winner
$87,644 Vol.
$87,644 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Greg Abbott (R)
84%
Gina Hinojosa (D)
16%
$87,644 Vol.
$87,644 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Greg Abbott (R)
$37,792 Vol.
84%
Gina Hinojosa (D)
$49,852 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott holds a consistent lead over Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa in polling for the November 3, 2026, Texas gubernatorial election, with recent surveys showing margins of 4–7 points and averages near Abbott +4–5. Abbott secured renomination easily in the March primary with roughly 82% of the vote, while Hinojosa emerged from a more competitive Democratic primary. Texas’s partisan lean and Abbott’s record as a three-term governor contribute to the wide gap in trader-implied probabilities. Recent August polls, including those from Texas Public Opinion Research and the University of Texas, show modest tightening driven by Hinojosa’s support among independents, Latino voters, and some moderates, though Abbott maintains advantages among white voters and maintains steady overall backing. No major campaign developments have shifted the race dramatically in the past month.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$87,644End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott holds a consistent lead over Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa in polling for the November 3, 2026, Texas gubernatorial election, with recent surveys showing margins of 4–7 points and averages near Abbott +4–5. Abbott secured renomination easily in the March primary with roughly 82% of the vote, while Hinojosa emerged from a more competitive Democratic primary. Texas’s partisan lean and Abbott’s record as a three-term governor contribute to the wide gap in trader-implied probabilities. Recent August polls, including those from Texas Public Opinion Research and the University of Texas, show modest tightening driven by Hinojosa’s support among independents, Latino voters, and some moderates, though Abbott maintains advantages among white voters and maintains steady overall backing. No major campaign developments have shifted the race dramatically in the past month.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$87,644End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott holds a consistent lead over Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa in polling for the November 3, 2026, Texas gubernatorial election, with recent surveys showing margins of 4–7 points and averages near Abbott +4–5. Abbott secured renomination easily in the March primary with roughly 82% of the vote, while Hinojosa emerged from a more competitive Democratic primary. Texas’s partisan lean and Abbott’s record as a three-term governor contribute to the wide gap in trader-implied probabilities. Recent August polls, including those from Texas Public Opinion Research and the University of Texas, show modest tightening driven by Hinojosa’s support among independents, Latino voters, and some moderates, though Abbott maintains advantages among white voters and maintains steady overall backing. No major campaign developments have shifted the race dramatically in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions