Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott holds a consistent polling edge of four to seven points over Democratic state representative Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race, reflecting Texas's longstanding Republican lean and Abbott's established name recognition and incumbency. Recent August surveys, including those from the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project and Texas Public Opinion Research, show Abbott at 45-49% support versus Hinojosa at 40-42%, with limited undecided voters and stable margins since summer. Hinojosa performs better among independents, Black, and Latino voters, yet Abbott maintains broader strength among white and male voters. Trader consensus prices align with these aggregates and historical patterns for Republican incumbents in the state, though the narrower gap compared to prior cycles leaves room for late shifts from turnout or economic sentiment ahead of the November 3 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTexas Governor Election Winner
Texas Governor Election Winner
$87,644 Vol.
$87,644 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Greg Abbott (R)
84%
Gina Hinojosa (D)
16%
$87,644 Vol.
$87,644 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Greg Abbott (R)
$37,792 Vol.
84%
Gina Hinojosa (D)
$49,852 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott holds a consistent polling edge of four to seven points over Democratic state representative Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race, reflecting Texas's longstanding Republican lean and Abbott's established name recognition and incumbency. Recent August surveys, including those from the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project and Texas Public Opinion Research, show Abbott at 45-49% support versus Hinojosa at 40-42%, with limited undecided voters and stable margins since summer. Hinojosa performs better among independents, Black, and Latino voters, yet Abbott maintains broader strength among white and male voters. Trader consensus prices align with these aggregates and historical patterns for Republican incumbents in the state, though the narrower gap compared to prior cycles leaves room for late shifts from turnout or economic sentiment ahead of the November 3 vote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$87,644End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott holds a consistent polling edge of four to seven points over Democratic state representative Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race, reflecting Texas's longstanding Republican lean and Abbott's established name recognition and incumbency. Recent August surveys, including those from the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project and Texas Public Opinion Research, show Abbott at 45-49% support versus Hinojosa at 40-42%, with limited undecided voters and stable margins since summer. Hinojosa performs better among independents, Black, and Latino voters, yet Abbott maintains broader strength among white and male voters. Trader consensus prices align with these aggregates and historical patterns for Republican incumbents in the state, though the narrower gap compared to prior cycles leaves room for late shifts from turnout or economic sentiment ahead of the November 3 vote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$87,644End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott holds a consistent polling edge of four to seven points over Democratic state representative Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race, reflecting Texas's longstanding Republican lean and Abbott's established name recognition and incumbency. Recent August surveys, including those from the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project and Texas Public Opinion Research, show Abbott at 45-49% support versus Hinojosa at 40-42%, with limited undecided voters and stable margins since summer. Hinojosa performs better among independents, Black, and Latino voters, yet Abbott maintains broader strength among white and male voters. Trader consensus prices align with these aggregates and historical patterns for Republican incumbents in the state, though the narrower gap compared to prior cycles leaves room for late shifts from turnout or economic sentiment ahead of the November 3 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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