Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 90.5% implied probability in the VA-03 House race, driven by the district's D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index and long-serving incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott's reelection bid since 1992, where he captured 70% in his last general election. Recent Virginia redistricting, approved April 21, preserved Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, bolstering structural advantages amid Scott's $158,000 cash-on-hand edge as of late March. No Republican candidates have filed ahead of the May 26 deadline, with primaries set for August 4. Upsets remain possible via strong late GOP recruitment, a Democratic primary loss for Scott to challenger Justin Maffett, personal scandal, or a national midterm Republican wave.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVA-03 House Election Winner
VA-03 House Election Winner
$18,567 Vol.
$18,567 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
8%
$18,567 Vol.
$18,567 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,335 Vol.
91%
Republican Party
$7,232 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 90.5% implied probability in the VA-03 House race, driven by the district's D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index and long-serving incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott's reelection bid since 1992, where he captured 70% in his last general election. Recent Virginia redistricting, approved April 21, preserved Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, bolstering structural advantages amid Scott's $158,000 cash-on-hand edge as of late March. No Republican candidates have filed ahead of the May 26 deadline, with primaries set for August 4. Upsets remain possible via strong late GOP recruitment, a Democratic primary loss for Scott to challenger Justin Maffett, personal scandal, or a national midterm Republican wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$18,567End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 90.5% implied probability in the VA-03 House race, driven by the district's D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index and long-serving incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott's reelection bid since 1992, where he captured 70% in his last general election. Recent Virginia redistricting, approved April 21, preserved Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, bolstering structural advantages amid Scott's $158,000 cash-on-hand edge as of late March. No Republican candidates have filed ahead of the May 26 deadline, with primaries set for August 4. Upsets remain possible via strong late GOP recruitment, a Democratic primary loss for Scott to challenger Justin Maffett, personal scandal, or a national midterm Republican wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$18,567End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 90.5% implied probability in the VA-03 House race, driven by the district's D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index and long-serving incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott's reelection bid since 1992, where he captured 70% in his last general election. Recent Virginia redistricting, approved April 21, preserved Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, bolstering structural advantages amid Scott's $158,000 cash-on-hand edge as of late March. No Republican candidates have filed ahead of the May 26 deadline, with primaries set for August 4. Upsets remain possible via strong late GOP recruitment, a Democratic primary loss for Scott to challenger Justin Maffett, personal scandal, or a national midterm Republican wave.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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