**The strong Democratic tilt of Georgia’s 4th congressional district underpins trader consensus that the November 3, 2026 general election will produce an outright winner.** Rated Safe D or Solid D by major forecasters, the district’s D+27 partisan voting index and consistent historical margins make a majority for the Democratic nominee nearly certain against limited Republican opposition. Incumbent Hank Johnson secured the Democratic nomination in the May 19 primary with roughly 70-79% of the vote, clearing the 50% threshold without a runoff and positioning him for a dominant general-election performance. Georgia law requires a December 1 runoff only if no candidate reaches a majority on election night; the absence of competitive cross-party dynamics or notable late developments has kept the implied probability of an outright winner near 95%. Scheduled events within the resolution window, such as routine campaign activity ahead of November, are not expected to alter the structural advantage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated95% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
95% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.**The strong Democratic tilt of Georgia’s 4th congressional district underpins trader consensus that the November 3, 2026 general election will produce an outright winner.** Rated Safe D or Solid D by major forecasters, the district’s D+27 partisan voting index and consistent historical margins make a majority for the Democratic nominee nearly certain against limited Republican opposition. Incumbent Hank Johnson secured the Democratic nomination in the May 19 primary with roughly 70-79% of the vote, clearing the 50% threshold without a runoff and positioning him for a dominant general-election performance. Georgia law requires a December 1 runoff only if no candidate reaches a majority on election night; the absence of competitive cross-party dynamics or notable late developments has kept the implied probability of an outright winner near 95%. Scheduled events within the resolution window, such as routine campaign activity ahead of November, are not expected to alter the structural advantage.
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 5:20 PM ET
Volume
$937End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.**The strong Democratic tilt of Georgia’s 4th congressional district underpins trader consensus that the November 3, 2026 general election will produce an outright winner.** Rated Safe D or Solid D by major forecasters, the district’s D+27 partisan voting index and consistent historical margins make a majority for the Democratic nominee nearly certain against limited Republican opposition. Incumbent Hank Johnson secured the Democratic nomination in the May 19 primary with roughly 70-79% of the vote, clearing the 50% threshold without a runoff and positioning him for a dominant general-election performance. Georgia law requires a December 1 runoff only if no candidate reaches a majority on election night; the absence of competitive cross-party dynamics or notable late developments has kept the implied probability of an outright winner near 95%. Scheduled events within the resolution window, such as routine campaign activity ahead of November, are not expected to alter the structural advantage.
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.
Volume
$937End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The strong Democratic tilt of Georgia’s 4th congressional district underpins trader consensus that the November 3, 2026 general election will produce an outright winner.** Rated Safe D or Solid D by major forecasters, the district’s D+27 partisan voting index and consistent historical margins make a majority for the Democratic nominee nearly certain against limited Republican opposition. Incumbent Hank Johnson secured the Democratic nomination in the May 19 primary with roughly 70-79% of the vote, clearing the 50% threshold without a runoff and positioning him for a dominant general-election performance. Georgia law requires a December 1 runoff only if no candidate reaches a majority on election night; the absence of competitive cross-party dynamics or notable late developments has kept the implied probability of an outright winner near 95%. Scheduled events within the resolution window, such as routine campaign activity ahead of November, are not expected to alter the structural advantage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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