**In Georgia's 14th congressional district special election, a crowded 17-candidate field on the March 10, 2026, all-party ballot created fragmentation that shaped trader expectations around an outright majority.** The heavily Republican district saw roughly a dozen GOP contenders split nearly 60% of the vote, while Democrat Shawn Harris consolidated most Democratic support to lead with about 37%. Republican Clay Fuller, backed by a Trump endorsement, placed second near 35%, with the next Republican trailing at roughly 12%. No candidate cleared the 50% threshold required under Georgia rules for an outright win, sending the top two to an April 7 runoff. Prior to the vote, market pricing at 93.5% for a first-round majority likely reflected assumptions of rapid consolidation behind endorsed frontrunners and the district's partisan lean, rather than sustained splitting among multiple Republican entrants. The actual dispersion of votes highlighted the impact of the open seat following Marjorie Taylor Greene's resignation and the procedural mechanics of the nonpartisan special election format.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated94% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
94% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-14 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-14 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-14 House election.**In Georgia's 14th congressional district special election, a crowded 17-candidate field on the March 10, 2026, all-party ballot created fragmentation that shaped trader expectations around an outright majority.** The heavily Republican district saw roughly a dozen GOP contenders split nearly 60% of the vote, while Democrat Shawn Harris consolidated most Democratic support to lead with about 37%. Republican Clay Fuller, backed by a Trump endorsement, placed second near 35%, with the next Republican trailing at roughly 12%.
No candidate cleared the 50% threshold required under Georgia rules for an outright win, sending the top two to an April 7 runoff. Prior to the vote, market pricing at 93.5% for a first-round majority likely reflected assumptions of rapid consolidation behind endorsed frontrunners and the district's partisan lean, rather than sustained splitting among multiple Republican entrants. The actual dispersion of votes highlighted the impact of the open seat following Marjorie Taylor Greene's resignation and the procedural mechanics of the nonpartisan special election format.
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-14 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-14 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-14 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-14 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-14 House election.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$526End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-14 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-14 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-14 House election.**In Georgia's 14th congressional district special election, a crowded 17-candidate field on the March 10, 2026, all-party ballot created fragmentation that shaped trader expectations around an outright majority.** The heavily Republican district saw roughly a dozen GOP contenders split nearly 60% of the vote, while Democrat Shawn Harris consolidated most Democratic support to lead with about 37%. Republican Clay Fuller, backed by a Trump endorsement, placed second near 35%, with the next Republican trailing at roughly 12%.
No candidate cleared the 50% threshold required under Georgia rules for an outright win, sending the top two to an April 7 runoff. Prior to the vote, market pricing at 93.5% for a first-round majority likely reflected assumptions of rapid consolidation behind endorsed frontrunners and the district's partisan lean, rather than sustained splitting among multiple Republican entrants. The actual dispersion of votes highlighted the impact of the open seat following Marjorie Taylor Greene's resignation and the procedural mechanics of the nonpartisan special election format.
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-14 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-14 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-14 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-14 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-14 House election.
Volume
$526End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**In Georgia's 14th congressional district special election, a crowded 17-candidate field on the March 10, 2026, all-party ballot created fragmentation that shaped trader expectations around an outright majority.** The heavily Republican district saw roughly a dozen GOP contenders split nearly 60% of the vote, while Democrat Shawn Harris consolidated most Democratic support to lead with about 37%. Republican Clay Fuller, backed by a Trump endorsement, placed second near 35%, with the next Republican trailing at roughly 12%. No candidate cleared the 50% threshold required under Georgia rules for an outright win, sending the top two to an April 7 runoff. Prior to the vote, market pricing at 93.5% for a first-round majority likely reflected assumptions of rapid consolidation behind endorsed frontrunners and the district's partisan lean, rather than sustained splitting among multiple Republican entrants. The actual dispersion of votes highlighted the impact of the open seat following Marjorie Taylor Greene's resignation and the procedural mechanics of the nonpartisan special election format.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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