Incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer's position anchors trader consensus for a Democratic victory in New Jersey's 5th congressional district at 96.9% implied probability. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's partisan lean and Gottheimer's consistent reelection margins, including 54.6% in 2024. His uncontested June primary and fundraising advantage exceeding $12 million in cash on hand further limit Republican prospects, with nominee Sean Kirrane operating under far more constrained resources. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited room for shifts absent major developments such as unexpected candidate withdrawals, late polling swings, or external events altering turnout patterns in Bergen, Passaic, and Sussex counties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-05 House Election Winner
NJ-05 House Election Winner
$26,211 Vol.
$26,211 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Josh Gottheimer (D)
96%
Sean Kirrane (R)
3%
$26,211 Vol.
$26,211 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Josh Gottheimer (D)
$19,054 Vol.
96%
Sean Kirrane (R)
$7,158 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer's position anchors trader consensus for a Democratic victory in New Jersey's 5th congressional district at 96.9% implied probability. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's partisan lean and Gottheimer's consistent reelection margins, including 54.6% in 2024. His uncontested June primary and fundraising advantage exceeding $12 million in cash on hand further limit Republican prospects, with nominee Sean Kirrane operating under far more constrained resources. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited room for shifts absent major developments such as unexpected candidate withdrawals, late polling swings, or external events altering turnout patterns in Bergen, Passaic, and Sussex counties.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Volume
$26,211End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer's position anchors trader consensus for a Democratic victory in New Jersey's 5th congressional district at 96.9% implied probability. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's partisan lean and Gottheimer's consistent reelection margins, including 54.6% in 2024. His uncontested June primary and fundraising advantage exceeding $12 million in cash on hand further limit Republican prospects, with nominee Sean Kirrane operating under far more constrained resources. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited room for shifts absent major developments such as unexpected candidate withdrawals, late polling swings, or external events altering turnout patterns in Bergen, Passaic, and Sussex counties.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,211End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer's position anchors trader consensus for a Democratic victory in New Jersey's 5th congressional district at 96.9% implied probability. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's partisan lean and Gottheimer's consistent reelection margins, including 54.6% in 2024. His uncontested June primary and fundraising advantage exceeding $12 million in cash on hand further limit Republican prospects, with nominee Sean Kirrane operating under far more constrained resources. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited room for shifts absent major developments such as unexpected candidate withdrawals, late polling swings, or external events altering turnout patterns in Bergen, Passaic, and Sussex counties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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