Recent polls after the September 8 party-list deadline show Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party led by former IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter, hovering near Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold, with results fluctuating between four projected seats in one survey and sub-threshold support in others. This volatility, combined with competition for right-wing voters from established parties like Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit plus a drop in undecided respondents, sustains tight trader pricing across vote-share brackets. Further pre-election polling, turnout patterns among nationalist and security-focused blocs, and any late shifts in coalition positioning could widen the gap between outcomes below 2.5% and those at or above 3.25%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.25-4% 36%
2.5-3.25% 34%
<2.5% 28%
5%+ 21%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<2.5%
47%
2.5-3.25%
34%
3.25-4%
36%
4-5%
36%
5%+
21%
3.25-4% 36%
2.5-3.25% 34%
<2.5% 28%
5%+ 21%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<2.5%
$20 Vol.
47%
2.5-3.25%
$0 Vol.
34%
3.25-4%
$0 Vol.
36%
4-5%
$13 Vol.
36%
5%+
$0 Vol.
21%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls after the September 8 party-list deadline show Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party led by former IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter, hovering near Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold, with results fluctuating between four projected seats in one survey and sub-threshold support in others. This volatility, combined with competition for right-wing voters from established parties like Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit plus a drop in undecided respondents, sustains tight trader pricing across vote-share brackets. Further pre-election polling, turnout patterns among nationalist and security-focused blocs, and any late shifts in coalition positioning could widen the gap between outcomes below 2.5% and those at or above 3.25%.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volume
$33End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls after the September 8 party-list deadline show Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party led by former IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter, hovering near Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold, with results fluctuating between four projected seats in one survey and sub-threshold support in others. This volatility, combined with competition for right-wing voters from established parties like Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit plus a drop in undecided respondents, sustains tight trader pricing across vote-share brackets. Further pre-election polling, turnout patterns among nationalist and security-focused blocs, and any late shifts in coalition positioning could widen the gap between outcomes below 2.5% and those at or above 3.25%.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$33End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls after the September 8 party-list deadline show Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party led by former IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter, hovering near Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold, with results fluctuating between four projected seats in one survey and sub-threshold support in others. This volatility, combined with competition for right-wing voters from established parties like Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit plus a drop in undecided respondents, sustains tight trader pricing across vote-share brackets. Further pre-election polling, turnout patterns among nationalist and security-focused blocs, and any late shifts in coalition positioning could widen the gap between outcomes below 2.5% and those at or above 3.25%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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