**Greg Stanton’s incumbency and the district’s established Democratic lean underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5% in the November 3, 2026 general election.** Arizona’s 4th Congressional District, covering suburban and urban portions of metro Phoenix including Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler, carries a D+4 partisan voting index and delivered Stanton a 52.7% victory in 2024. He consolidated support by defeating progressive challenger Kai Newkirk by roughly two-to-one in the July 21 Democratic primary, reflecting broad backing across ideological and demographic groups within the party. Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser ran unopposed in his primary after prior unsuccessful bids, while race ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. Recent statewide polling showing Democratic strength in down-ballot contests further reinforces the current positioning. A national partisan shift, major scandal, or unusually strong performance by the No Labels candidate could narrow the margin, though structural factors make such outcomes unlikely without significant new developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-04 House Election Winner
AZ-04 House Election Winner
$32,463 Vol.
$32,463 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
$32,463 Vol.
$32,463 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$25,617 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$6,846 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Greg Stanton’s incumbency and the district’s established Democratic lean underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5% in the November 3, 2026 general election.** Arizona’s 4th Congressional District, covering suburban and urban portions of metro Phoenix including Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler, carries a D+4 partisan voting index and delivered Stanton a 52.7% victory in 2024. He consolidated support by defeating progressive challenger Kai Newkirk by roughly two-to-one in the July 21 Democratic primary, reflecting broad backing across ideological and demographic groups within the party. Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser ran unopposed in his primary after prior unsuccessful bids, while race ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. Recent statewide polling showing Democratic strength in down-ballot contests further reinforces the current positioning. A national partisan shift, major scandal, or unusually strong performance by the No Labels candidate could narrow the margin, though structural factors make such outcomes unlikely without significant new developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$32,463End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Greg Stanton’s incumbency and the district’s established Democratic lean underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5% in the November 3, 2026 general election.** Arizona’s 4th Congressional District, covering suburban and urban portions of metro Phoenix including Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler, carries a D+4 partisan voting index and delivered Stanton a 52.7% victory in 2024. He consolidated support by defeating progressive challenger Kai Newkirk by roughly two-to-one in the July 21 Democratic primary, reflecting broad backing across ideological and demographic groups within the party. Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser ran unopposed in his primary after prior unsuccessful bids, while race ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. Recent statewide polling showing Democratic strength in down-ballot contests further reinforces the current positioning. A national partisan shift, major scandal, or unusually strong performance by the No Labels candidate could narrow the margin, though structural factors make such outcomes unlikely without significant new developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,463End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Greg Stanton’s incumbency and the district’s established Democratic lean underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5% in the November 3, 2026 general election.** Arizona’s 4th Congressional District, covering suburban and urban portions of metro Phoenix including Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler, carries a D+4 partisan voting index and delivered Stanton a 52.7% victory in 2024. He consolidated support by defeating progressive challenger Kai Newkirk by roughly two-to-one in the July 21 Democratic primary, reflecting broad backing across ideological and demographic groups within the party. Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser ran unopposed in his primary after prior unsuccessful bids, while race ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. Recent statewide polling showing Democratic strength in down-ballot contests further reinforces the current positioning. A national partisan shift, major scandal, or unusually strong performance by the No Labels candidate could narrow the margin, though structural factors make such outcomes unlikely without significant new developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions