Yassamin Ansari secured unopposed Democratic nomination in the July 21, 2026 primary for Arizona's 3rd Congressional District, while Republicans fielded no viable candidate beyond write-ins. The district's D+22 Partisan Voter Index, majority-Latino composition in western Phoenix and surrounding areas, and Ansari's 70.9% victory margin in 2024 underpin trader consensus at 98% for Democrats. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic with no competitive Republican opposition on the November 3 ballot. Minor-party entries, including Green and No Labels candidates, register negligible support. A Democratic outcome could shift only under extraordinary circumstances such as a major scandal, incumbent health event, or unprecedented national tidal wave capable of overcoming the district's structural partisan advantage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-03 House Election Winner
AZ-03 House Election Winner
$50,582 Vol.
$50,582 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
1%
$50,582 Vol.
$50,582 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$31,713 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$18,869 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Yassamin Ansari secured unopposed Democratic nomination in the July 21, 2026 primary for Arizona's 3rd Congressional District, while Republicans fielded no viable candidate beyond write-ins. The district's D+22 Partisan Voter Index, majority-Latino composition in western Phoenix and surrounding areas, and Ansari's 70.9% victory margin in 2024 underpin trader consensus at 98% for Democrats. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic with no competitive Republican opposition on the November 3 ballot. Minor-party entries, including Green and No Labels candidates, register negligible support. A Democratic outcome could shift only under extraordinary circumstances such as a major scandal, incumbent health event, or unprecedented national tidal wave capable of overcoming the district's structural partisan advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$50,582End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Yassamin Ansari secured unopposed Democratic nomination in the July 21, 2026 primary for Arizona's 3rd Congressional District, while Republicans fielded no viable candidate beyond write-ins. The district's D+22 Partisan Voter Index, majority-Latino composition in western Phoenix and surrounding areas, and Ansari's 70.9% victory margin in 2024 underpin trader consensus at 98% for Democrats. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic with no competitive Republican opposition on the November 3 ballot. Minor-party entries, including Green and No Labels candidates, register negligible support. A Democratic outcome could shift only under extraordinary circumstances such as a major scandal, incumbent health event, or unprecedented national tidal wave capable of overcoming the district's structural partisan advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$50,582End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Yassamin Ansari secured unopposed Democratic nomination in the July 21, 2026 primary for Arizona's 3rd Congressional District, while Republicans fielded no viable candidate beyond write-ins. The district's D+22 Partisan Voter Index, majority-Latino composition in western Phoenix and surrounding areas, and Ansari's 70.9% victory margin in 2024 underpin trader consensus at 98% for Democrats. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic with no competitive Republican opposition on the November 3 ballot. Minor-party entries, including Green and No Labels candidates, register negligible support. A Democratic outcome could shift only under extraordinary circumstances such as a major scandal, incumbent health event, or unprecedented national tidal wave capable of overcoming the district's structural partisan advantage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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