Incumbent Republican Eli Crane faces Democratic challenger Jonathan Nez and Libertarian Curtis Goodwin in Arizona’s 2nd congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district, covering northeastern Arizona including Prescott, Flagstaff, and portions of the Navajo Nation, gave Crane a 54.5% victory in 2024. Both major-party candidates ran unopposed in the July 21 primaries. Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican, consistent with trader pricing that places the Republican outcome at 69.5%. Nez’s prior campaign mobilized Native American voters effectively but trailed the district’s partisan baseline, while Crane benefits from incumbency, established fundraising, and the structural advantages typical for House members seeking reelection in similar districts. No major late-cycle developments have shifted these fundamentals in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-02 House Election Winner
AZ-02 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
72%
Democratic Party
28%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$1,433 Vol.
72%
Democratic Party
$1,154 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Eli Crane faces Democratic challenger Jonathan Nez and Libertarian Curtis Goodwin in Arizona’s 2nd congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district, covering northeastern Arizona including Prescott, Flagstaff, and portions of the Navajo Nation, gave Crane a 54.5% victory in 2024. Both major-party candidates ran unopposed in the July 21 primaries. Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican, consistent with trader pricing that places the Republican outcome at 69.5%. Nez’s prior campaign mobilized Native American voters effectively but trailed the district’s partisan baseline, while Crane benefits from incumbency, established fundraising, and the structural advantages typical for House members seeking reelection in similar districts. No major late-cycle developments have shifted these fundamentals in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
Volume
$2,587End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Eli Crane faces Democratic challenger Jonathan Nez and Libertarian Curtis Goodwin in Arizona’s 2nd congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district, covering northeastern Arizona including Prescott, Flagstaff, and portions of the Navajo Nation, gave Crane a 54.5% victory in 2024. Both major-party candidates ran unopposed in the July 21 primaries. Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican, consistent with trader pricing that places the Republican outcome at 69.5%. Nez’s prior campaign mobilized Native American voters effectively but trailed the district’s partisan baseline, while Crane benefits from incumbency, established fundraising, and the structural advantages typical for House members seeking reelection in similar districts. No major late-cycle developments have shifted these fundamentals in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,587End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Eli Crane faces Democratic challenger Jonathan Nez and Libertarian Curtis Goodwin in Arizona’s 2nd congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district, covering northeastern Arizona including Prescott, Flagstaff, and portions of the Navajo Nation, gave Crane a 54.5% victory in 2024. Both major-party candidates ran unopposed in the July 21 primaries. Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican, consistent with trader pricing that places the Republican outcome at 69.5%. Nez’s prior campaign mobilized Native American voters effectively but trailed the district’s partisan baseline, while Crane benefits from incumbency, established fundraising, and the structural advantages typical for House members seeking reelection in similar districts. No major late-cycle developments have shifted these fundamentals in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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