Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical margins exceeding 50 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004, faces a Democratic primary on August 11, 2026, against limited opposition while Republican challengers remain marginal. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s urban Milwaukee base and voter patterns. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 93 percent incorporates these structural factors alongside the absence of recent developments capable of narrowing the gap. Late shifts could arise from an unexpected primary upset, candidate health developments, or an unusually large national partisan swing, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the district’s established voting trends.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoWI-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
WI-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$19,230 Vol.
$19,230 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
4%
$19,230 Vol.
$19,230 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$5,971 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$13,259 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical margins exceeding 50 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004, faces a Democratic primary on August 11, 2026, against limited opposition while Republican challengers remain marginal. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s urban Milwaukee base and voter patterns. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 93 percent incorporates these structural factors alongside the absence of recent developments capable of narrowing the gap. Late shifts could arise from an unexpected primary upset, candidate health developments, or an unusually large national partisan swing, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the district’s established voting trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$19,230Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical margins exceeding 50 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004, faces a Democratic primary on August 11, 2026, against limited opposition while Republican challengers remain marginal. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s urban Milwaukee base and voter patterns. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 93 percent incorporates these structural factors alongside the absence of recent developments capable of narrowing the gap. Late shifts could arise from an unexpected primary upset, candidate health developments, or an unusually large national partisan swing, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the district’s established voting trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$19,230Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical margins exceeding 50 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004, faces a Democratic primary on August 11, 2026, against limited opposition while Republican challengers remain marginal. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s urban Milwaukee base and voter patterns. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 93 percent incorporates these structural factors alongside the absence of recent developments capable of narrowing the gap. Late shifts could arise from an unexpected primary upset, candidate health developments, or an unusually large national partisan swing, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the district’s established voting trends.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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