Wisconsin’s 4th Congressional District remains a strongly Democratic seat anchored in Milwaukee, where incumbent Gwen Moore has won reelection with margins exceeding 70 percent in recent cycles. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure. Moore faces primary challengers Amy Donahue and Asher Smale on August 11, while the Republican primary features only Purnima Nath. With filing deadlines passed and no major shifts in voter registration or turnout patterns, trader consensus aligns with historical base rates for similar urban Democratic districts. A late primary upset or unexpected redistricting ruling could theoretically alter the November 3 general election, though both remain low-probability events at this stage.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Casa WI-04
Vencedor da eleição para a Casa WI-04
$23,415 Vol.
$23,415 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
94%
Partido Republicano
3%
$23,415 Vol.
$23,415 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$6,364 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$17,051 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th Congressional District remains a strongly Democratic seat anchored in Milwaukee, where incumbent Gwen Moore has won reelection with margins exceeding 70 percent in recent cycles. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure. Moore faces primary challengers Amy Donahue and Asher Smale on August 11, while the Republican primary features only Purnima Nath. With filing deadlines passed and no major shifts in voter registration or turnout patterns, trader consensus aligns with historical base rates for similar urban Democratic districts. A late primary upset or unexpected redistricting ruling could theoretically alter the November 3 general election, though both remain low-probability events at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$23,415Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th Congressional District remains a strongly Democratic seat anchored in Milwaukee, where incumbent Gwen Moore has won reelection with margins exceeding 70 percent in recent cycles. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure. Moore faces primary challengers Amy Donahue and Asher Smale on August 11, while the Republican primary features only Purnima Nath. With filing deadlines passed and no major shifts in voter registration or turnout patterns, trader consensus aligns with historical base rates for similar urban Democratic districts. A late primary upset or unexpected redistricting ruling could theoretically alter the November 3 general election, though both remain low-probability events at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$23,415Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin’s 4th Congressional District remains a strongly Democratic seat anchored in Milwaukee, where incumbent Gwen Moore has won reelection with margins exceeding 70 percent in recent cycles. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure. Moore faces primary challengers Amy Donahue and Asher Smale on August 11, while the Republican primary features only Purnima Nath. With filing deadlines passed and no major shifts in voter registration or turnout patterns, trader consensus aligns with historical base rates for similar urban Democratic districts. A late primary upset or unexpected redistricting ruling could theoretically alter the November 3 general election, though both remain low-probability events at this stage.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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