The closely contested nature of Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district race has shaped trader consensus, with the Democratic Party holding a 62.5% implied probability and the Republican Party at 45.5% for the 2026 general election. Incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden, who won reelection by roughly three points in 2024, faces a Democratic primary featuring strong contenders such as Rebecca Cooke, whose recent polling shows a commanding lead and solid fundraising momentum ahead of the August 11 primary. Race ratings from outlets including the Cook Political Report classify the seat as a toss-up, reflecting the district's narrow partisan lean and history of tight margins. Key factors include early voter turnout signals, candidate positioning on local economic issues, and the broader midterm environment, all of which could shift probabilities before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-03 House Election Winner
WI-03 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
61%
Republican Party
31%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$464 Vol.
61%
Republican Party
$510 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The closely contested nature of Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district race has shaped trader consensus, with the Democratic Party holding a 62.5% implied probability and the Republican Party at 45.5% for the 2026 general election. Incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden, who won reelection by roughly three points in 2024, faces a Democratic primary featuring strong contenders such as Rebecca Cooke, whose recent polling shows a commanding lead and solid fundraising momentum ahead of the August 11 primary. Race ratings from outlets including the Cook Political Report classify the seat as a toss-up, reflecting the district's narrow partisan lean and history of tight margins. Key factors include early voter turnout signals, candidate positioning on local economic issues, and the broader midterm environment, all of which could shift probabilities before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$974End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The closely contested nature of Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district race has shaped trader consensus, with the Democratic Party holding a 62.5% implied probability and the Republican Party at 45.5% for the 2026 general election. Incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden, who won reelection by roughly three points in 2024, faces a Democratic primary featuring strong contenders such as Rebecca Cooke, whose recent polling shows a commanding lead and solid fundraising momentum ahead of the August 11 primary. Race ratings from outlets including the Cook Political Report classify the seat as a toss-up, reflecting the district's narrow partisan lean and history of tight margins. Key factors include early voter turnout signals, candidate positioning on local economic issues, and the broader midterm environment, all of which could shift probabilities before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$974End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The closely contested nature of Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district race has shaped trader consensus, with the Democratic Party holding a 62.5% implied probability and the Republican Party at 45.5% for the 2026 general election. Incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden, who won reelection by roughly three points in 2024, faces a Democratic primary featuring strong contenders such as Rebecca Cooke, whose recent polling shows a commanding lead and solid fundraising momentum ahead of the August 11 primary. Race ratings from outlets including the Cook Political Report classify the seat as a toss-up, reflecting the district's narrow partisan lean and history of tight margins. Key factors include early voter turnout signals, candidate positioning on local economic issues, and the broader midterm environment, all of which could shift probabilities before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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