The Democratic hold on Wisconsin’s 2nd congressional district rests on its consistent structural advantage and the long incumbency of Representative Mark Pocan, who has won recent general elections by wide margins. The district’s urban and suburban voter base has produced reliable Democratic majorities, and Pocan faces no serious primary challenge ahead of the August 11 contest. Republican candidate Erik Olsen, a first-time contender, enters a race that has historically favored the incumbent by more than twenty points. With primaries still months away and no major redistricting changes or national shifts yet materializing, traders assign overwhelming probability to continued Democratic control. A late scandal, health development, or unusually strong Republican national environment could narrow the gap, though such factors have not altered the seat’s fundamentals in prior cycles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$88,929 Vol.
$88,929 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
96%
共和党
6%
$88,929 Vol.
$88,929 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$53,322 Vol.
96%
共和党
$35,607 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic hold on Wisconsin’s 2nd congressional district rests on its consistent structural advantage and the long incumbency of Representative Mark Pocan, who has won recent general elections by wide margins. The district’s urban and suburban voter base has produced reliable Democratic majorities, and Pocan faces no serious primary challenge ahead of the August 11 contest. Republican candidate Erik Olsen, a first-time contender, enters a race that has historically favored the incumbent by more than twenty points. With primaries still months away and no major redistricting changes or national shifts yet materializing, traders assign overwhelming probability to continued Democratic control. A late scandal, health development, or unusually strong Republican national environment could narrow the gap, though such factors have not altered the seat’s fundamentals in prior cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$88,929終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic hold on Wisconsin’s 2nd congressional district rests on its consistent structural advantage and the long incumbency of Representative Mark Pocan, who has won recent general elections by wide margins. The district’s urban and suburban voter base has produced reliable Democratic majorities, and Pocan faces no serious primary challenge ahead of the August 11 contest. Republican candidate Erik Olsen, a first-time contender, enters a race that has historically favored the incumbent by more than twenty points. With primaries still months away and no major redistricting changes or national shifts yet materializing, traders assign overwhelming probability to continued Democratic control. A late scandal, health development, or unusually strong Republican national environment could narrow the gap, though such factors have not altered the seat’s fundamentals in prior cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$88,929終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic hold on Wisconsin’s 2nd congressional district rests on its consistent structural advantage and the long incumbency of Representative Mark Pocan, who has won recent general elections by wide margins. The district’s urban and suburban voter base has produced reliable Democratic majorities, and Pocan faces no serious primary challenge ahead of the August 11 contest. Republican candidate Erik Olsen, a first-time contender, enters a race that has historically favored the incumbent by more than twenty points. With primaries still months away and no major redistricting changes or national shifts yet materializing, traders assign overwhelming probability to continued Democratic control. A late scandal, health development, or unusually strong Republican national environment could narrow the gap, though such factors have not altered the seat’s fundamentals in prior cycles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問