South Dakota’s at-large congressional district carries a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent federal contests. Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination in the June 2, 2026 primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote, creating a unified party ticket against Democrat Nicole Gronli and independent Jack Pittman. Traders’ 93.5 percent consensus on a Republican win draws from this primary consolidation, the state’s partisan registration edge, and limited Democratic organizational presence. A meaningful shift would require an unforeseen scandal involving the GOP nominee, a sharp national Democratic surge that narrows typical margins, or unusually depressed Republican turnout in November. Forecasters continue to rate the seat solid or safe Republican.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiSD-AL House Election Winner
SD-AL House Election Winner
$16,973 Vol.
$16,973 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
11%
$16,973 Vol.
$16,973 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$9,494 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$7,479 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota’s at-large congressional district carries a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent federal contests. Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination in the June 2, 2026 primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote, creating a unified party ticket against Democrat Nicole Gronli and independent Jack Pittman. Traders’ 93.5 percent consensus on a Republican win draws from this primary consolidation, the state’s partisan registration edge, and limited Democratic organizational presence. A meaningful shift would require an unforeseen scandal involving the GOP nominee, a sharp national Democratic surge that narrows typical margins, or unusually depressed Republican turnout in November. Forecasters continue to rate the seat solid or safe Republican.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$16,973Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota’s at-large congressional district carries a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent federal contests. Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination in the June 2, 2026 primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote, creating a unified party ticket against Democrat Nicole Gronli and independent Jack Pittman. Traders’ 93.5 percent consensus on a Republican win draws from this primary consolidation, the state’s partisan registration edge, and limited Democratic organizational presence. A meaningful shift would require an unforeseen scandal involving the GOP nominee, a sharp national Democratic surge that narrows typical margins, or unusually depressed Republican turnout in November. Forecasters continue to rate the seat solid or safe Republican.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$16,973Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Dakota’s at-large congressional district carries a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent federal contests. Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination in the June 2, 2026 primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote, creating a unified party ticket against Democrat Nicole Gronli and independent Jack Pittman. Traders’ 93.5 percent consensus on a Republican win draws from this primary consolidation, the state’s partisan registration edge, and limited Democratic organizational presence. A meaningful shift would require an unforeseen scandal involving the GOP nominee, a sharp national Democratic surge that narrows typical margins, or unusually depressed Republican turnout in November. Forecasters continue to rate the seat solid or safe Republican.
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