Chuck Gray secured the Republican nomination for Wyoming’s at-large House seat after winning a crowded August 2026 primary with 25.4 percent of the vote in the open contest to succeed Harriet Hageman. The state’s consistent Republican dominance, reflected in prior presidential margins exceeding 25 points, underpins trader consensus around his 97.7 percent implied probability. Lisa Kinney’s Democratic primary victory has produced no measurable shift in the race’s fundamentals, consistent with historical patterns where the party has held the seat since the late 1970s. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Only unforeseen developments such as a significant late scandal or health event involving the nominee could realistically alter the current positioning ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWY-AL House Election Winner
WY-AL House Election Winner
$44,335 Vol.
$44,335 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Chuck Gray (R)
98%
Lisa Kinney (D)
<1%
$44,335 Vol.
$44,335 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Chuck Gray (R)
$20,354 Vol.
98%
Lisa Kinney (D)
$23,981 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Chuck Gray secured the Republican nomination for Wyoming’s at-large House seat after winning a crowded August 2026 primary with 25.4 percent of the vote in the open contest to succeed Harriet Hageman. The state’s consistent Republican dominance, reflected in prior presidential margins exceeding 25 points, underpins trader consensus around his 97.7 percent implied probability. Lisa Kinney’s Democratic primary victory has produced no measurable shift in the race’s fundamentals, consistent with historical patterns where the party has held the seat since the late 1970s. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Only unforeseen developments such as a significant late scandal or health event involving the nominee could realistically alter the current positioning ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$44,335End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Chuck Gray secured the Republican nomination for Wyoming’s at-large House seat after winning a crowded August 2026 primary with 25.4 percent of the vote in the open contest to succeed Harriet Hageman. The state’s consistent Republican dominance, reflected in prior presidential margins exceeding 25 points, underpins trader consensus around his 97.7 percent implied probability. Lisa Kinney’s Democratic primary victory has produced no measurable shift in the race’s fundamentals, consistent with historical patterns where the party has held the seat since the late 1970s. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Only unforeseen developments such as a significant late scandal or health event involving the nominee could realistically alter the current positioning ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$44,335End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Chuck Gray secured the Republican nomination for Wyoming’s at-large House seat after winning a crowded August 2026 primary with 25.4 percent of the vote in the open contest to succeed Harriet Hageman. The state’s consistent Republican dominance, reflected in prior presidential margins exceeding 25 points, underpins trader consensus around his 97.7 percent implied probability. Lisa Kinney’s Democratic primary victory has produced no measurable shift in the race’s fundamentals, consistent with historical patterns where the party has held the seat since the late 1970s. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Only unforeseen developments such as a significant late scandal or health event involving the nominee could realistically alter the current positioning ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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