Republican incumbent Nick Begich advanced comfortably from Alaska’s August 18 top-four primary with 44.6% of the vote, while independent Bill Hill took second at 32.5% and the leading Democrat, Matt Schultz, finished third before withdrawing. Recent polls show Begich ahead of Hill by double digits in both first-round and final ranked-choice scenarios, consistent with the state’s Republican presidential lean and the absence of a strong Democratic contender on the November 3 general-election ballot. Traders have priced the Republican Party as the clear favorite at 83.5% implied probability, reflecting Begich’s incumbency advantage, consolidated support within his party, and the structural barriers facing remaining Democratic and independent options.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAK-AL House Election Winner
AK-AL House Election Winner
$39,857 Vol.
$39,857 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
84%
Democratic Party
8%
$39,857 Vol.
$39,857 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$10,113 Vol.
84%
Democratic Party
$29,744 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Nick Begich advanced comfortably from Alaska’s August 18 top-four primary with 44.6% of the vote, while independent Bill Hill took second at 32.5% and the leading Democrat, Matt Schultz, finished third before withdrawing. Recent polls show Begich ahead of Hill by double digits in both first-round and final ranked-choice scenarios, consistent with the state’s Republican presidential lean and the absence of a strong Democratic contender on the November 3 general-election ballot. Traders have priced the Republican Party as the clear favorite at 83.5% implied probability, reflecting Begich’s incumbency advantage, consolidated support within his party, and the structural barriers facing remaining Democratic and independent options.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
Volume
$39,857End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Nick Begich advanced comfortably from Alaska’s August 18 top-four primary with 44.6% of the vote, while independent Bill Hill took second at 32.5% and the leading Democrat, Matt Schultz, finished third before withdrawing. Recent polls show Begich ahead of Hill by double digits in both first-round and final ranked-choice scenarios, consistent with the state’s Republican presidential lean and the absence of a strong Democratic contender on the November 3 general-election ballot. Traders have priced the Republican Party as the clear favorite at 83.5% implied probability, reflecting Begich’s incumbency advantage, consolidated support within his party, and the structural barriers facing remaining Democratic and independent options.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,857End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Nick Begich advanced comfortably from Alaska’s August 18 top-four primary with 44.6% of the vote, while independent Bill Hill took second at 32.5% and the leading Democrat, Matt Schultz, finished third before withdrawing. Recent polls show Begich ahead of Hill by double digits in both first-round and final ranked-choice scenarios, consistent with the state’s Republican presidential lean and the absence of a strong Democratic contender on the November 3 general-election ballot. Traders have priced the Republican Party as the clear favorite at 83.5% implied probability, reflecting Begich’s incumbency advantage, consolidated support within his party, and the structural barriers facing remaining Democratic and independent options.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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